Weekly Bitumen Report: The Two-Bladed Sword of Recession and Probable Dynamicity after the Recent Falls of Bitumen Price

After 148 days of Russia war against Ukraine, while some of the American magazines had reported that Russia is planning to make the invaded cities of Ukraine as a part of their own land, gas transfer of Russia to Europe i.e. Project Nord Stream 1 started after a 10-day gap due to the yearly maintenance.

However, oil price reached to less than 100 US dollars within the last 5 months due to the fear of more global recession and increase of interest rate in the USA. At the time of preparing this report, oil price crossed around 103 US dollars. As it was mentioned on Monday report of Infinity Galaxy, this price will be in the range of 90-110 US dollars.

During the last 7 days and after President Biden’s travel to the Middle East, the presidents of Russia and Turkey travelled to Iran and met with Iran’s president to discuss the regional developments. This visit empowered the possibility of lack of success in JCPOA negotiations.

In the meantime, the outbreak of the new wave of Corona affected the economic growth of the countries in 2022 with the dread of lockdowns. In case of Corona continuity, the markets of capital and raw material with face a global recession.

Also, after the severe fall of fuel oil, it is expected that Iran observes a fall of around 18% from 23^rd July and since February 2022, it is the first time that Iran bitumen in drum packing will reach to less than 400 US dollar on FOB basis while Singapore drum bitumen is being reported at 575 US dollars and Bahrain bitumen prices fell 15 US dollars. India is also predicting a considerable drop on the first of August.

Besides, shipping transportation costs have seen their lowest level during the last 6 months and as a result of recession in the export rate.

With respect to the predicted range of oil price and by the implementation of fall of bitumen prices in Iran and India, the bitumen price might become cheaper comparing to oil price and the costs of bitumen production. This fact and approaching the end of monsoon in some of the countries can be a dynamic factor of the market movements after several months of recession.  

However, Infinity Galaxy is still recommending the customers to move in the market by investigating the accurate and apposite data.

This article was prepared by Razieh Gilani, the export manager of Infinity Galaxy (www.infinitygalaxy.org).