Weekly Bitumen Report: The Hidden Fight of Prices, Bitumen and Crude Involved in Political Shocks

The Political and Economic Developments of the Week

Political Shakes in World’s Economy

During the last week, the international political atmosphere was under the influence of Donald Trump’s threats to impose heavy tariffs on copper, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors from key countries like Japan, Korea, European Union, and BRICS members leading to new instability in global trade. The decision was followed by a tough reaction by commercial partners of America and concerns about a rise in production costs, as a result the market treated more cautiously. At the same time, America imposed new sanctions against the export of Iran’s’ crude oil. Besides, the Russia-Ukraine war, with Russia’s threats to change its positions and reduce Western military support, has created new uncertainties for the global economy.

Crude and Fuel Oil Markets in East Asia

Crude Oil Bipolarity: OPEC+ Facing Geopolitical Crises

Considering the abovementioned situations, the crude oil market is stuck between two contradictory poles: on one hand, OPEC+ decided to increase August production up to 550K barrels per day under the pressure of America and China to avoid any price jump, the purpose of such decision was to control supply. On the other hand, the geopolitical tension in the region was a significant factor of improvement. The main reasons of lack of significant growth in crude oil prices can be attributed to weak demand due to the concerns about recession in China and Europe and cautiousness of the capitalists. Overall, these developments led to stability of crude oil prices in the range of $68-69, a point between supply management and the heavy shadow of political and economic instability in the world.
On Thursday, Singapore’s 180CST closed at $431, bitumen prices in Singapore and South Korea reached $433 and $410 , respectively.

Bitumen Market in Bahrain and Europe

The Fragile Stability under the Shadow of High Supply Level

The bitumen prices remained above $400 for more than a month and maintained their stability. For the second consecutive week, bitumen prices in Europe and Mediterranean dropped as demand and supply were weakened by approaching holiday and lower construction. The bitumen prices were recorded in the range of $400-450.

India Bitumen Market

Monsoon Caused Recession in Market

In India, lower demand and slower consumption were clearly observed compared to the previous months. A part of this decrease is due to the retreat of construction projects, and another part is due to the monsoon. For now, India postponed its new purchases, and the imported bitumen price has remained relatively stable but under pressure to decrease.

China Market

A Fragile Balance between Inventory Increase and Attempts to Maintain Prices

China bitumen market faces a relative stability in bitumen price under the influence of weak demand and increased inventory. Although the recent rainfalls in some provinces led to temporary reduction of consumption, the renewed activation of construction projects in the eastern and southern provinces has somehow improved the market. Like India, China is under pressure of price reduction by the buyers.

Market Analysis of Iran

Export under the Shadow of Geopolitical Risks

In Iran, the geopolitical risks have not been eliminated yet, however, export procedure improved relatively and it’s going on despite implementations of war risk surcharge by the shipping lines. There are no significant trend changes in export chain of Iran.

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