Weekly Oil Report: Fears of Supply Disruption Over Market

Iran and Israel disputes put more pressure on oil markets. Watch crude oil technical analysis:

On Friday, Brent closed at $78.85, and WTI closed at $75.44. You can see the mid-September uptrend channel on the 1h chart of WTI. The breakout pullback happened and it needs to pass above 78 to stabilise. Brent price is still fighting the resistance.  

Rumours of Israel possible attack on Iran’s oil and gas infrastructures kept traders worried about a coming war. When time passed and nothing happened, disappointment pushed Brent futures lower. As war possibility drops, fears of a supply disruption decrease. 

Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, piloted a flight to Beirut to meet Hezbollah officials. “Iran will always support Lebanon with all its strength,” he said. 

Talks about closing the Strait of Hormuz pumped a new fear about supply disruption. The strait is a vital oil cargo lane and there is a low possibility that Iran close it. 

The market also expected a huge outage from Hurricane Milton in the US. Although it was destructive for Florida, it had a minor effect on oil markets. 

EIA reported that crude and oil products flows in Bab-el-Mandeb have dropped by 50%. Meanwhile, oil shipments around Cape of Good Hope increased to 9.2 million bpd in 2024. Flows shift is happening due to Houthies’ attack on commercial ships. In August, Trafigura estimated that oil tankers would consume an extra 200,000 bpd of fuel due to the route shifting. 

The bitumen market also had a rising trend. Prices increased in Africa, Europe, East Asia, and the Middle East. 

Feel free to contact me for any bitumen inquiries. You can also check an estimate of price for your required destination port on Bitumen Price Today.

By Mahnaz Golmohammadian, the international sales expert of Infinity Galaxy (www.infinitygalaxy.org).