Weekly Bitumen Report: The Prediction of Surge in Crude Oil Price

During the last week, gold demand in the central banks of the world dropped at the same time of heavy supply of Turkey Central Bank for the third frequent trimester. In the quarterly report of World Gold Council, it was announced that the net purchase of World Central Banks reached 103 MT in the second trimester of 2023 after 64% drop the demand of gold purchase reached the lowest level within the last year.

It is not clear whether drop in gold demand can lead to the surge of crude oil price, while there is normally an opposite effect between these two factors. At the same time, Oilprice reported that based on Bloomberg survey “Saudis could decide to relax the cuts by 250,000 to 500,000 barrels daily from next month”.


It is also heard that Saudi might decide to increase its production in this autumn to recover its lost share of market.
Based on the analysis in Oilprice website, the oil price of 85 USD is just a beginning for increase of it.
In the meantime, petrol and gasoline prices jumped in America during the last week.


GasBuddy company announced that the price of petrol led to the increase of fuel prices in America due to the shut-down of some refineries as a result of extreme heat, peak of petrol demand in summer, and the lowest level of petrol storages in July since 2015. This company also added that more increase in fuel prices in America can be expected by the continuation of hot weather.


Overall, oil price did not exceed 86 USD and remained in the channel of 83-86 USD but it is necessary to have more accurate investigation on the economic reports of America such as none farm payroll to see whether the level of 86 USD will be broken?

During the last 10 days, Singapore’s fuel increased significantly so that HSFO CST180 reached the unprecedented number of 575 USD that is the first record at this level in 2023.
Singapore and South Korea bulk bitumen reached 460 and 405 USD, respectively.


Bahrain’s bitumen price was stable at the level of 410 USD. In the Europe Union, bitumen price exceeded 500 USD.
Despite severe monsoon season in India, bitumen price in India rose 23.5 USD on 1 August. However, the level of bitumen demand in India is not pleasant enough.


In Iran, there were unexpected holidays because of severe heat and port operations are carried out slowly in Bandar Abbas. Considering the notable competition for vacuum bottom purchases before the holiday, bitumen prices increased drastically. However, it is estimated that the base price of vacuum bottom rises at least 14% on Sunday although US dollar grew a little against Iran Rial and it did not lead to any fall in bitumen prices of Iran.


On the other hand, the price gap between genuine sources and some others reach up to 30 USD for which there cannot be any clear analysis considering the factors of production, base price of vacuum bottom, and the competition. However, the role players of the market are strongly advised to find out the reasonable prices considering all the costs and be cautious about the risks of low prices in the market.
As usual, Infinity Galaxy team is openly willing to assist the players of the market to make wise business decisions.


This article was prepared by Razieh Gilani, the export manager of Infinity Galaxy (www.infinitygalaxy.org).