Weekly Bitumen Report: The Conflict Escalates Again; Oil Near $100, but Bitumen Has Yet to Pass Through the Strait of Hormuz

Political Phase

The second week of June moved forward with a clear divide: the rhetoric speaks of an agreement, but developments on the ground are still following a different path. Reports were published indicating that Trump has repeatedly spoken over the past months about an agreement with Iran being close, yet as of June 11, no final signature has been seen. During the same period, Trump’s new statements regarding Iran’s delaying tactics, the crash of an American helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz, and reciprocal attacks between the United States and Iran once again weighed heavily on the negotiation atmosphere. At the same time, Israel’s attack on Beirut and Iran’s response to Israel in support of Lebanon demonstrated that the crisis is no longer limited to Tehran and Washington and has once again expanded into multiple regional fronts.

Strait of Hormuz and Regional Risk

In the Persian Gulf, the main issue is still not safe passage; it is reliable and frequent passage. Iran has announced that the Strait of Hormuz is closed, while the United States says that some commercial vessels are still transiting through it. These two conflicting narratives alone are enough for the market to view the Strait of Hormuz route as far from normal. On one hand, claims have been made that more than one hundred oil tankers have transited with U.S. support, while on the other hand, new reports of Iranian attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait, and U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf have kept regional risk elevated. Threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait further reinforce this picture: transportation risk is not limited to the Strait of Hormuz, but the center of pressure remains there.

Brent Crude Oil Prices

Despite renewed tensions, Brent crude oil remained mostly below $100 per barrel over the past week, fluctuating around $93-96. The main reason was that the market has not yet ruled out the possibility of an agreement, the limited reopening of transportation routes, and the prevention of a broader war. However, following the American helicopter crash and the latest attacks, oil prices reacted again; in other words, the market has moved away from panic mode but has not yet reached a state of calm.

Fuel Oil and Bitumen in Asia

In the products market, the latest Platts data shows that Singapore 180 CST fuel oil was around $595/MT on June 9, while Persian Gulf 180 CST fuel oil stood at approximately $552/MT. This means the market declined compared with the previous day, but price levels are still neither low nor normal. Singapore bitumen is reported at around $585-590/MT, while South Korean bitumen is indicated at approximately $550-560/MT. In China, East China prices have remained around $590-600/MT, but purchasing activity is still cautious; demand exists, yet liquidity pressure, rainfall, and buyers’ wait-and-see approach are preventing the market from entering a phase of heavy buying.

India, Europe, and the Direction of Bitumen Prices

In India, the market remains at a high level. The latest Argus reports place Mumbai domestic prices at around $777-840/MT. In other words, the limited declines seen at the beginning of June did not make the market cheaper; they merely slowed the pace of previous increases. In Europe, export prices have retreated from earlier peaks, returning to the range of $576-610/MT. This means Europe has undergone a correction, but the market is still neither weak nor cheap.

Iran Market

In Iran, the price level is still the secondary issue. Supply from Iran continues to face weak export activity, vessel limitations, Strait of Hormuz risks, and uncertainty regarding delivery timing. Therefore, a lower price on paper alone is not an advantage. The key question for buyers is whether the cargo is actually loadable, transportable, and deliverable, or merely a number presented to initiate negotiations.

Market Summary

This week, the bitumen market has entered a dual-phase situation: oil remains below $100, but bitumen has not detached itself from transportation and supply risks. Singapore and South Korea continue with limited supply and cautious demand, China remains hesitant about heavy purchases, India stays elevated, Europe has corrected but not become cheap, Bahrain remains stable, and Iran continues to struggle with execution risk. The conclusion is clear: today’s market cannot be read by price alone; what matters is identifying who truly has the ability to execute the transaction.

Razieh Gilani, Infinity Galaxy

In such a market, making an offer is easy; making the right offer is difficult. When every piece of news about the Strait of Hormuz, oil, vessels, insurance, or a new attack can alter the course of a deal, buyers do not need just a number. Buyers need a supplier who knows which price is still real, which route is still workable, and who will remain accountable if conditions change. Today, credibility in the bitumen market means providing a price that you can stand behind, not a number that merely appears attractive for a few minutes.