Weekly Bitumen Report: Diplomacy on Paper, Risk in the Field; Oil Pulled Back, but the Strait of Hormuz Still Remains the Market’s Main Knot

Political Phase

As of May 7, 2026, the most important change in the market was not the end of the crisis, but a deeper gap between diplomatic hope and operational risk. On one side, Reuters, citing sources close to the talks, reported that Washington and Tehran were close to a short memorandum to stop the war, and that Tehran was expected to respond within the next 48 hours on key points. On the other side, the same reports showed that major issues such as the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and some strategic U.S. demands were still unresolved, and that no final outcome had yet been secured. At the same time, Trump spoke of a “quick end to the war” while also warning that if the diplomatic track failed, pressure would return. This contradiction made the market take the possible agreement seriously, but not treat it as lasting stability.

Regional Pressure and the Strait of Hormuz

During the same period, the UAE’s exit from OPEC and OPEC+ delivered an important political blow to the cohesion of the oil producers’ bloc and signaled that even within the traditional energy camp, divisions are widening. At sea, risk also did not ease: Reuters reported that a container ship was hit during a night transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and that incident was one of dozens of maritime events recorded since the war began. Trump’s naval plan to escort ships, the same initiative described as Project Freedom, was also temporarily paused. On the Lebanon-Israel front, the ceasefire still remains fragile; talks continue, but the Israeli airstrike on southern Lebanon on May 6 showed that this front can still feed risk back into the market.

Brent Crude Oil Price

The oil market reflected this contradiction very clearly. At the start of the week, Brent rose to around $115 on the back of Strait of Hormuz risk and the continued naval blockade, but as news emerged that the two sides were moving closer to an initial understanding, part of the war premium was removed and by May 6 it had fallen back to around $101. Reuters made the reason for this pullback clear: the market began pricing in the possibility of a halt to the war and a reduction in risk to energy routes, even though it still has not fully accepted the return of real stability. On top of that, the energy shock has not remained limited to oil. Concerns over pressure on global growth, inflation, fuel costs, and even food security are still elevated. Trump’s planned trip to China in mid-May is, for now, more of a political variable than a direct factor of market calm, because traders are still focused on developments in the Middle East.

Fuel Oil and Bitumen in Asia

In the bitumen market, the price decline was slower than in oil. On Thursday, Singapore 180 CST fuel oil was around $743 per ton, while Persian Gulf 180 CST fuel oil was around $677 per ton, meaning the fuel oil market is still holding part of the risk premium. In bitumen, however, the Asian picture has become somewhat softer: on Thursday, FOB Singapore bitumen fell to around $550-560 per ton, while FOB South Korea bitumen traded around $495 per ton. Both were lower than the previous week, mainly because of weaker regional demand and improved supply. In China, demand still exists, but buying remains slow and cautious. The market prefers drawing from inventories rather than moving into aggressive purchasing.

India’s Bitumen Market

In India, the most important change was that the market moved from a “price shock” phase into a phase of limited correction. There are reports from some Indian domestic refineries about price reductions; however, this does not mean that bitumen has become cheap in the Indian market. Rather, India has stepped back from the phase of panic-driven shortage, but the market has still not reached stability.

Europe’s Bitumen Market

In Europe, unlike Asia, the market has still not entered a phase of serious decline. Europe’s export range has been around $616 to $640 per ton. That means Europe has moved beyond the sharp surge of March, but it is still in a phase of relatively stable but high prices. The reason is straightforward: the weekly rise in oil and fuel oil has continued to support the European market, and in some areas refinery supply constraints still do not allow prices to fall quickly.

Iran’s Bitumen Market

In Iran, the issue is still more about real export execution than price itself. Iranian export activity has remained largely stalled, because disruption to vessel movement through the Strait of Hormuz, together with the U.S. naval blockade, has restricted trade. At this point, the key question in Iran is no longer “what price has been quoted to the customer?” The real question is what can actually be executed.

Razieh Gilani from Infinity Galaxy:

In this market, the main mistake is for the buyer to keep making decisions with the logic of normal days. Today, the real advantage is not simply in receiving a lower number. The real advantage is where the right price is combined with the right understanding and real presence. A seller who only gives a number from a distance may look attractive at first, but when shipping routes, Strait of Hormuz risk, vessel conditions, and delivery timing change, that same number can turn into a hidden cost for the customer. In these conditions, a professional buyer needs more than ever to distinguish between a “display price” and a “reliable price.” The market now does not reward the company that only gives a price faster; it chooses the company that remains responsive when conditions change and can turn a deal from paper into execution.