Snapshot:
As the Middle East war approaches its fourth week, it has moved beyond direct military confrontation and into a phase of targeting energy infrastructure and maritime logistics.On March 19, Brent crude climbed to around $112, while attacks on energy facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar increased regional supply risk.
In the products market, although some prices have eased from their peaks, HSFO fuel oil is still trading at elevated levels.In the bitumen market, the issue is no longer only higher prices; supply shortages, force majeure conditions, port disruptions, and a sharp rise in freight costs have pushed the market into a phase of execution risk.
Market Direction:
The short term direction of the energy and bitumen markets remains bullish and high risk. However, from this point onward, the main driver is no longer crude oil alone. The determining factors will be the combined risk of damage to energy infrastructure, maritime disruption, and limitations in feedstock availability and transportation.
The war that began on 28 February has, by 19 March, entered a stage that can no longer be defined only as a conflict among Iran, Israel, and the United States. In recent days, the crisis has moved beyond military exchanges and into the energy infrastructure of the Persian Gulf. After attacks on oil facilities in southern Iran, Iran also struck energy facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, with extensive damage reported in Ras Laffan, Qatar. At the same time, despite diplomatic pressure, there are still no clear signs that the crisis will be contained quickly.
In the Persian Gulf, the situation has also not returned to normal. Several countries, with US support, have proposed a secure maritime corridor to help roughly 20,000 seafarers stranded in the Persian Gulf. This clearly shows that, from the market’s point of view, the Strait of Hormuz crisis is far from resolved. Platts data also shows that as of 16 March, vessel traffic was still below pre-war levels, although limited movement had resumed on some routes.
The oil market is no longer moving only on perceived risk. It is now reacting to actual regional supply damage. On 19 March, Brent rose to $112.86, far above the $8-85 range seen in the 6 March report. This jump shows that the market now sees attacks on energy infrastructure as a serious operational risk.In products, the initial shock has still not fully cleared, but from 16 to 17 March part of the market entered a phase of volatility at high levels. On 17 March, Singapore HSFO 180 rose to around $755, while Persian Gulf HSFO 180 moved toward $680, and Singapore bitumen reached $575 per ton. This confirms that the bitumen market is still absorbing, with some delay, the shock created in earlier weeks.
In East Asia, the bitumen market continues to face limited supply and seller retreat. International market reports indicate that sellers are avoiding firm offers, while buyers are facing difficulty securing firm prices.
In the Persian Gulf and Iran, execution risk is even more serious. The sharp rise in freight costs, very slow loading operations, reluctance of vessels to enter ports, and the significant increase in feedstock prices have effectively pushed bitumen exports toward a near standstill. It should also be considered that from 20 March, Iran enters the Nowruz holiday period, which will almost certainly further slow export activity.
As a result, the bitumen market has now entered a phase in which price is no longer the only factor in decision making. The market is facing three layers of risk at the same time:
First, the risk of continued attacks on the region’s energy infrastructure.
Second, the risk of ongoing disruption in maritime transport and insurance.
Third, the risk of reduced real bitumen supply due to feedstock constraints, force majeure conditions, and operational weakness.
This combination has turned the market, especially for buyers with urgent needs, from a simply expensive market into a complex and inflexible one.
Razieh Gilani from Infinity Galaxy:
In such conditions, the energy and bitumen markets are defined less by price increases alone and more by the quality of execution. During periods of crisis, a professional buyer does not look only at whether the market is up or down by a few dollars on a given day. The real question is which supplier is genuinely present, can actually provide cargo, manage timing, and remain alongside the customer through the shipping and delivery chain. If there is no urgent need to purchase, caution and patience until the market becomes clearer may be the more rational approach. But for urgent buying needs, priority should be given to suppliers that monitor the market daily and have preserved their execution capability under high risk conditions.
Finally, as we approach the Iranian New Year, Nowruz, we hope the new year begins with greater calm, with an end to all wars, lower tensions in the Middle East, and peace for the people of the region and the world.
Happy Nowruz.
