Weekly Bitumen Report: Strait of Hormuz Still Closed; A War of Attrition, The Bitumen Market Under Severe Price Increase Pressure

Market Snapshot

Over the past week, the Middle East war moved from its initial shock phase into a prolonged conflict centered on infrastructure. There were no signs of a quick victory, and no clear path toward ending the crisis emerged.

After jumping above $112 on March 20, oil remained above $100 through March 26, and the market continued to trade on the risk of prolonged supply disruption and rising freight costs.

As of March 26, the Strait of Hormuz had still not returned to normal conditions. Iran stated that non-hostile vessels could transit under certain conditions, but shipping flows and exports remained restricted.

In the bitumen market, the issue is no longer only higher prices. Feedstock limitations, wartime conditions, port risks in the Persian Gulf, and sharply rising freight costs have pushed the market into a phase of execution shortage.

Market Direction

The short-term direction of the energy and bitumen markets remains bullish and high-risk. From this point onward, however, the main driver is no longer crude oil alone. The combination of energy infrastructure risk, Strait of Hormuz disruption, feedstock limitations, and weak shipping execution will be decisive.

Over the past week, the war neither eased nor moved closer to resolution. Military pressure from the United States and Israel continued, but after nearly four weeks Iran also remained active in its cycle of response and regional disruption, managing to keep the cost of war elevated across the energy and maritime sectors. This led the market to conclude that the crisis is no longer a short-term shock, but a war of attrition with a lasting impact on energy markets.

On the political side, during this period the United States floated a ceasefire proposal through intermediaries, but as of March 26 Iran had not accepted it and said it was still reviewing the proposal, while no direct talks with Washington were under way. At the same time, Iran insisted that any ceasefire arrangement must also include the Lebanon front. This gap between the American proposal and Iran’s refusal to accept it directly remains one of the main reasons for continued uncertainty in the market.

In the Persian Gulf, conditions had still not normalized by Thursday, March 26. Iran stated that “non-hostile” ships could pass with coordination, but in practice news reports and market data showed that traffic remained limited, concerns over attacks were still very real, and the market still did not view the route as a normal and open passage. In other words, from the market’s perspective, the Strait of Hormuz was still not truly operational. It had only moved from full blockage to limited passage.

The oil market reflected this new phase clearly. On March 20, Brent rose to $113, and by March 26, despite some hopes for a ceasefire, it remained above $104. The gap between the US and Iranian narratives over how the war might end, combined with continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, prevented the market from supporting any rapid decline in prices. Put simply, oil pulled back somewhat from its peak, but it still stayed at a level showing that the risk of continued war remains high.

In the global fuel oil and bitumen markets, international reports show that the market remained highly volatile during this period, even though part of the price spike has been corrected. On March 23, Singapore HSFO 180 reached around $793 per ton, while Persian Gulf HSFO 180 rose to around $721 per ton. On March 24, those figures fell back to around $690 and $627. So the initial heat in the market eased somewhat, but prices remained far above pre-war levels, which means continued pressure on the bitumen market.

There is still no real calm in bitumen. If we make only a short comparison between February 27 and March 20, the picture is clear: Singapore bitumen moved from around $360 per ton to above $620 per ton, while South Korea rose from around $370 to around $545 per ton. This shows that bitumen has not only followed crude oil. It has also come under pressure from fuel oil, feedstock, freight costs, wartime conditions in the Persian Gulf, and the growing risk of contract execution.

In Iran, the situation has become even more difficult and more complex. Wartime conditions, combined with the New Year holidays and concerns over air attacks, pushed exports close to zero. Despite strong demand, the supply chain still has not returned to full operating condition.

As a result, the bitumen market is now facing three simultaneous risks:

First, continued pressure on the region’s energy infrastructure.

Second, ongoing disruption in maritime transport and insurance.

Third, real supply reduction due to feedstock constraints, wartime conditions, and weak operations.

For buyers with urgent needs, this has turned the market from one that is simply expensive into one that is complex and inflexible.

Razieh Gilani from Infinity Galaxy:

In such conditions, a professional buyer must distinguish between a “price on paper” and an “executable price.” Today’s market is still shaped by war risk, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, feedstock shortages, and rising freight costs. So if there is no urgent need to buy, caution and patience until conditions become clearer may be the more rational choice. But if a project or supply requirement is urgent, priority should be given to suppliers that do not only quote prices, but also maintain a real market presence, operational access, and the ability to execute orders under high-risk conditions.