Weekly Bitumen Report: Major War in the Middle East, Energy Market Enters Shock

Market Snapshot

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has stopped about 25% of the world’s oil flow.
Brent crude has reached the range of 84 to 85 dollars, the highest level in the past year.
Logistics costs and war risk insurance in the Persian Gulf are rising quickly.

Market Direction

With the Strait of Hormuz closed, logistics costs rising, and the oil market reacting quickly, the short-term direction of the energy and bitumen market is currently considered bullish and high-risk.

On Saturday, February 28, 2026, American and Israeli fighter jets attacked Iran, and the leader of Iran, along with many military commanders, were killed in these attacks. After the attacks, the Iranian government announced seven days of national mourning, while at the same time the level of conflict in the region increased quickly.

From the evening of the same day, exchanges of missile and drone attacks between the sides began, and the tension spread to several countries in the region. At the same time, Iran stopped the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a route through which about 25 percent of the world’s oil consumption passes. At present, a long line of oil tankers has formed on both sides of the strait, and ship movement will only be possible with military escort.

The US government has announced that it is studying naval escorts for oil tankers to reopen the route. However, the sharp increase in security, insurance, and maritime transport costs has already affected the energy market.

The oil market reacted quickly to the developments in the Middle East. The price of Brent crude first increased by about 7 percent and then entered the range of 84 to 85 dollars, which is the highest level in the past year. At the same time, unofficial reports suggest that Shanghai-delivery oil trades have been close to 100 dollars, showing a strong rise in risk premium in the market.

The products market also moved with oil. The price of Singapore CST180 fuel oil increased by about 11 percent, and bitumen prices in different markets around the world rose between 5 and 11 percent. In India, domestic bitumen prices also increased by about 22 dollars per ton, which is the largest price adjustment in 2026.

In the logistics sector, signs of crisis have also appeared. Jebel Ali port, which had stopped operations for several days, resumed loading and unloading services on Wednesday. However, DP World has announced that because of security risks in the Persian Gulf, about 2000 dollars of war risk cost per container has been added to shipping costs.

In Iran, after the seven-day mourning and closure period ends, damage assessment is expected to begin in Bandar Abbas. Limited loading operations are expected to start from Sunday, March 8, 2026.

If operational conditions stabilize, new Iranian bitumen export prices may be announced from the beginning of next week.

Under current conditions, the energy market is not mainly facing a real supply shortage. Instead, it is dealing with geopolitical risk premium, higher logistics costs, and operational limits. These factors usually affect even contracts and cargoes that were traded before the crisis.

Insight of Infinity Galaxy:

During periods of geopolitical tension in the Middle East, the energy market usually does not first face a real supply shortage. Instead, it faces a fast increase in operational risk premium. In such conditions, what matters is not only price, but the real ability to execute contracts, manage logistics, and provide stable supply. Market experience shows that during crisis periods, buyers quickly move toward suppliers who have strong operational networks, regional experience, and the ability to fulfill commitments in high-risk conditions. In the coming weeks, the Middle East bitumen market will likely be influenced more than ever by risk management, execution ability, and the choice of reliable trading partners.