Weekly Bitumen Report: Trump’s Annual Speech in Congress; Energy Market in a Cautious Waiting Phase
The Political and Economic Developments of the Week
Open Diplomacy, Steady Pressure
Political and geopolitical developments up to Thursday, February 26 show that the international order remains in a state of managed tension. Trump’s speech on Wednesday in the US Congress stressed a mix of external pressure and keeping negotiations open. Today, the third round of Iran-US talks has started in Geneva. According to international media, disagreements remain, but the path of dialogue is still open. The US military presence in the Middle East has increased, but for now international observers see the risk level as controlled.
In the economic field, the energy market reacts quickly to any political signal. Middle East risk remains high but contained. At the same time, China is trying to support domestic growth and the construction sector with supportive policies. This factor is key for oil demand. The current global situation includes active but fragile diplomacy, partly managed tension, and an energy market outlook linked to the talks and China’s economic path.
Executive Market Snapshot:
- Brent is holding above the psychological $70 level under geopolitical risk premium.
- No real supply disruption yet, but market sentiment remains sensitive to headlines.
- Bahrain remains elevated, Europe firm, Asia gradually reactivating after holidays.
- Short-term downside appears limited unless diplomatic signals improve.
- Current bias: cautiously upward but still fragile.
East Asia Oil and Fuel Market
Brent Above $70; Supply Not Disrupted Yet
Over the past week, Brent crude traded mostly above $70. The main reason was higher geopolitical risk and concern about supply disruption. However, the market has not faced a serious fundamental shortage yet. The most likely price range for Brent next week is between $68 – $72.
Singapore CST 180 fuel oil reached $427 on Thursday. Singapore and South Korea bitumen prices reached $360 and $369.
This week, with the end of the Chinese New Year holidays, the waiting phase in the market ended. Planned refinery shutdowns in East Asia in March may limit supply further and support prices.
Bahrain and Europe Bitumen Market
High Prices, Low Consumption
Over the past week, Bahrain bitumen prices remained around $550, considering political risks in the region, without correction. In Europe, despite severe cold and rain, bitumen prices increased to the $360-390 range. It seems that refineries in the Mediterranean area are interested in buying feedstock from Venezuela. This signal may lead to price correction in the future.
However, the bitumen price trend remains stable in Bahrain and slightly upward in Europe.
India Bitumen Market
Cautious Stability in India
India’s bitumen market showed more stable behavior compared to Europe and East Asia. Prices stayed almost unchanged. This stability comes from a relative balance between supply and demand in the domestic market. There is no clear sign of major project growth or strong rise in consumption. The trading atmosphere is still cautious. If oil product prices continue to rise, the Indian market may also see price increases despite the current balance.
China Market
Gradual Return After Holidays
Following last week’s conditions, China’s prices remained within previous ranges. The market was quiet due to the New Year holidays and lower contractor activity. This situation was more of a seasonal pause than a structural trend change. After the holidays ended on Monday, February 23, signs of gradual return of projects and trade talks are appearing. In the coming days, the real direction of the market is expected to become clearer as activity increases.
Iran Market Analysis
Buying Interest with Slow Decision-Making
With less than one month left until the Iranian New Year holidays, export traffic is usually expected to increase at this time. However, Iran’s bitumen market is facing two opposite forces. On one side, higher base prices of raw materials and rising feed costs have strengthened the bottom price, and buying interest in target markets still exists. On the other side, the geopolitical climate in the Middle East and political risks have made some buyers more cautious and slowed down deal finalization.
As a result, the market is neither in a demand drop phase nor in an export jump phase. It is in a managed waiting position. If political risk decreases, export flow can quickly become more active.
Decision Exposure This Week:
For Traders:
- Market sensitivity around the $70 Brent level remains high.
- Headlines from negotiations can quickly shift short-term sentiment.
- Downside risk appears limited unless tensions clearly ease.
For Project Buyers:
- Waiting for clearer signals may expose procurement budgets to higher levels.
- Even stable oil prices may slowly lead to firmer bitumen prices.
- Procurement cycles often move slower than market repricing.
- In previous geopolitical phases, markets repriced faster than buyers reacted. Stability does not always mean no risk.
Razieh Gilani from Infinity Galaxy
The global bitumen market is currently influenced more by political expectations and risk management than by real supply shortage. In this environment, buying decisions are delayed but not canceled. Market interest to buy exists, but the speed of turning negotiation into contract depends on political signals. In our view, if tension in the Middle East stabilizes or decreases, this waiting demand can quickly turn into real transactions and move the market from caution to execution.
If Brent stabilizes above $70 as a new short-term base, how will it affect your procurement strategy for the next 30-45 days? Leave a comment or a message on WhatsApp.
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