Weekly Oil Report: Recession Fears Shortly Suppressed Markets

Commodities experienced a sudden and temporarily plunge during the first week of July.

Oil dropped about 9% on Tuesday because of an emotional reaction to fears of a possible recession following the interest rate increase.

Brent, finally, grew back to $107.00 and WTI closed at $104.78 on Friday.

In the 4h WTI chart, the price is moving under two moving averages of 100 and 200. The yearly pivot is also at around $107. Oil Price needs to move more strongly to break the resistance.

In the daily chart, the price is trapped among the 100 and 200 moving average and it might fluctuate in the area for a short time.

We can have 2 possible scenarios for oil in July.

If the bearish sentiments of fears stay in the market or intensify, crude can fall further to around 90.

Otherwise, the price thrives considering the supply disruptions and demand.

The bankers insist on increasing the interest rate faster to tame inflation. Considering historical evidence such as the crisis in the 70s, they prefer to face a recession instead of hyperinflation. There might be another interest rate increase in July.

The dollar is rallying higher with increasing interest rates and it causes a volatile exchange rate for many traders.

Supply disruptions are growing by shutting down refineries due to strikes and Ukraine war circumstances.

Traders might be confused and undecisive toward bitumen and petrochemical considering the condition of crude and exchange rates.

Accordingly, Iran reduced bitumen prices by 6%. New steel drum Bandar Abbas FOB is currently in the range of $420 to $430.

Fears of the instability of the Dollar/Rial exchange rate make several producers reluctant to decrease the price.

Singapore has not changed the prices yet. Rumours show the possibility of a slight increase or a stable condition in India. All markets look to be confused by the recession fear.