Weekly Bitumen Report: Negotiation Under Risk; Brent Oil Near $70

The Political and Economic Developments of the Week

Diplomacy Under Pressure; Open Path Open, Far Deal
In the week ending February 19, 2026, the main focus of international media was the dual track of “negotiation and pressure” between Iran and the United States. The second round of Geneva talks ended without failure, but also without clear progress. Disagreement over the scope of sanctions relief and guarantee mechanisms still remains. At the same time, the increase of US military presence in the Persian Gulf is seen more as a pressure tool and risk control measure, not a sign of immediate military action.
The overall view is this: the path for talks is open, but deep mistrust blocks a fast agreement, and regional risk remains above normal levels.
In Europe, the recent Russia-Ukraine meeting to discuss a ceasefire is seen more as a tactical effort to manage war fatigue than a step toward real peace. Disputes over occupied territories and security guarantees are still unresolved. At the same time, strong US economic data has delayed expectations for fast interest rate cuts and has kept the dollar strong.
The general result: the world is in a phase of “negotiation under pressure,” and the global economy is in a cautious waiting mode. There is no sign of a quick deal, but also no sign of immediate escalation. However, uncertainty remains high.

Brent at a Sensitive Level; Asia Moves in Two Directions
On Thursday, February 19, Brent reached around $70 because the market is pricing Iran-US tension risk, but in reality, there has been no actual oil supply disruption, and the dollar remains strong. Most international analysis suggests that unless real export flows are affected, a stable move above $72–$75 will be difficult.
Singapore CST180 fuel oil reached $429, and bitumen prices in Singapore and South Korea reached $361 and $360, respectively.
This week in East Asia, the market moved in two directions. Singapore saw a slight decline, mainly due to Chinese New Year holidays.
In contrast, South Korea experienced price growth, showing maintained strength. Unlike previous weeks, Korea took the lead in pricing in the East Asia region.

Bahrain and Europe Bitumen Market

Europe with Higher Premium; Bahrain at Risk Peak

Bitumen prices in Europe increased across different markets, ranging from $360 to $385, showing stronger growth compared to previous weeks.
Bahrain bitumen stood at $550, but this level mostly reflects short-term supply tightness and geopolitical risk in the Persian Gulf rather than real demand growth. Its stability depends on regional calm and shipping flow.

India Bitumen Market

India in Pause Mode; Market Evaluating
The Indian domestic market saw limited growth. The market has moved from the strong January phase into a pause phase. There is no serious supply pressure, but there is also no new wave of projects pushing prices higher. Indian buyers are mainly watching oil and regional risks.

China Market

New Year Holiday; Demand in Waiting Mode
As Chinese New Year approaches, project activity and bitumen consumption have naturally declined, and the market has entered a waiting phase.
Buyers are focusing more on inventory management and closing previous commitments rather than new purchases.
Although limited supply for coming months could support prices, in the short term the holiday effect is stronger.

Iran Market Analysis

Cautious Stability; Gradual Growth Potential
The Iran market has maintained relative stability in recent weeks, with signs of gradual upward interest. However, trading remains cautious and sensitive.
Exports continue, but decisions have become more conservative, and transaction speed is slower than in some European and Korean markets.
If regional tension continues and oil rises, there is room for price movement, but the path will likely be more gradual compared to some other markets.

Razieh Gilani from Infinity Galaxy

The global market today is neither in crisis nor in calm. We are in a phase where negotiations continue, but risk is not removed. Brent stands at the psychological $70 level, and any signal after the Geneva talks can shift short-term direction. In this environment, what matters is not emotion, but risk management and purchase timing. The bitumen market is not facing real supply shortage yet, but if tensions rise, prices may react much faster than buyers can decide.

If Brent stabilizes above $70 as a new short-term base, does your procurement strategy change over the next 30–45 days? Leave a comment or a message on WhatsApp.