Weekly Bitumen Report: 2026 Started with Cautious Oil, Tense Politics, and a Market in Wait

The Political and Economic Developments of the Week

From Sanctions to the Battlefield; Politics Still Leads the Energy Market

The year 2026 began while, in the last week of the previous year, US energy pressure on Venezuela increased through stronger sanctions and executive actions against oil export networks, especially in Latin America. This again showed that Washington still uses energy as an active geopolitical tool. This approach has kept transport, insurance, and oil flow risks high in the global market. At the same time, the meeting between Trump and Netanyahu in the US came with a threatening tone toward Hamas and stressed the continuation of a hard line on the Middle East case. In West Africa, a US air strike on ISIS positions in Nigeria was carried out to control long-term insecurity. This move shows that Washington’s security presence in high-risk areas is still active and that stability in this region remains fragile. These events happened as 2025 ended, while the Russia-Ukraine war continues with no clear end, and the fragile ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, despite heavy human and financial losses, remains stuck in a “no war, no peace” state.

Crude and Fuel Oil Markets in East Asia

Oil at the Lowest Range, Fuel in Holiday Mode, and Lower Trades

In the last week of 2025, according to Reuters, oil prices showed limited movement despite supply and geopolitical concerns and ended the year without a strong rise. Brent crude traded slightly higher at around $61, and US crude was nearly $58 per barrel. Market data shows that in all of 2025, Brent fell about 18 percent and WTI nearly 19 percent year on year, marking the lowest average price since 2020. Analysts, including BNP Paribas, believe that in the first quarter of 2026, the market will remain under pressure from excess supply, weak global demand growth, and high US shale output. The main view is Brent moving in the $55-60 range, unless OPEC+ makes deeper supply cuts or geopolitical risks rise unexpectedly.
On Thursday, 31 December 2025, the price of Singapore 180CST fuel reached $341, and bitumen prices in Singapore and South Korea reached $355 and $330, respectively. This mostly kept the trend of past weeks, with the note that, as it was the last week of 2025 and the start of holidays, trade volumes also fell.

Bitumen Market in Bahrain and Europe

Price Stability against Shocks; Bahrain Still, Europe in Seasonal Recession

Bahrain bitumen prices stayed fixed at $400 throughout the second half of 2025 and up to the last days of the year. Bahrain kept its price steady at this level through all market shocks.
In Europe, the price trend in the last week of 2025 stayed in the $310- 340 range, the same as the week before. New Year holidays, along with snow and a bad cold, caused a sharp drop in trading activity. No clear or special event was recorded in the market this week.

India Bitumen Market

India Sent a Demand Signal; Price Rises Ahead of Project Returns

Indian refineries, on the last day of 2025, decided to raise their prices for January 2026 by about $9.5 for VG30 bitumen and about $10.5 for VG40 bitumen. This shows projects becoming active in India and a higher level of requests in this subcontinent, and it brings hope for more imports.

China Market

China in Wait Mode; Purchases Delayed until after the Holidays

The China market trend, like last week, was marked by buyer patience. Buyers, due to the close January holidays, were not in a rush to buy and delayed most decisions until after the January holidays.

Market Analysis of Iran

Holidays and Short Slowdown; Iran Waiting for a New Direction

Production in Iran in the last week of 2025 was affected by the New Year holidays and strong cold weather. Despite sharp moves in the dollar against the rial, due to market slowdown, bitumen prices in Iran also saw a small drop. This was mainly due to the start of the serious 2026 New Year holidays. The market is mostly waiting for next week and the end of the holidays to see its direction.

Insight by Razieh Gilani from Infinity Galaxy

In my view, the market at the start of 2026 is moving forward with caution, not shock. Oil at current levels is more in a “wait for a decision” mode than looking for a “new driver.” US energy pressure, unresolved wars, and careful buyer behavior in East Asia and China have pushed the bitumen and fuel markets into a phase of stability, not growth. In this space, countries with more active infrastructure projects, like India, send demand signals sooner. In other markets, buyers wait for clearer oil directions and OPEC+ decisions. In short, the first quarter of 2026 is more about “risk control and waiting” than a price jump, and any major change is more likely to come from politics, not real demand.

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