Weekly Bitumen Report: Markets under the Shadow of $65 Brent Oil; Geopolitical Risk Still Holds Prices

The Political and Economic Developments of the Week

Davos, War, and Rising Global Uncertainty

Over the past week, alongside unrest in Iran, Trump’s speech at the Davos meeting, with renewed focus on aggressive, tariff-based trade policies and putting US interests first, increased uncertainty in markets and global relations. At the same time, in the Russia-Ukraine war, the continued fighting with no real signs of diplomatic progress, and Moscow’s clear focus on continuing its war goals, showed that the war has entered a more tiring phase. This war remains one of the main risks for the global economy and energy markets.

Crude and Fuel Oil Markets in East Asia

$65 Crude Oil, A Caution Signal in the Energy Market

On Thursday, January 22, Brent oil prices rose to around $65. This increase was the result of several factors at the same time: the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war keeping market risk high, supply limits by OPEC+, and investor concerns about the future of the global economy and politics, which led to cautious buying in the oil market.

Singapore 180 CST fuel oil prices reached $359 on Thursday, and Singapore and South Korea bitumen prices reached $361 and $340, respectively, showing a gradual rise in the market.

Bitumen Market in Bahrain and Europe

Nominal Stability, Fragile Balance

In the Persian Gulf market, Bahrain bitumen prices, according to Platts, remained unchanged at $400 per ton. This shows continued controlled supply and no new demand pressure at this stage. At the same time in Europe, although the bitumen market has entered a low-volume and cautious phase after the holidays, FOB Rotterdam fuel prices stayed in the range of $325-330 per ton. This level has acted as a price floor and prevented a sharper drop in bitumen prices in the Mediterranean and Northwest Europe, keeping the European market most stable for now.

India Bitumen Market

Active Demand, but Fully Price-driven

The Indian market still shows higher demand compared to East Asia, reflecting continued domestic consumption. However, buyer behavior remains fully price-driven, with market focus mainly on planned cargoes and short-term contracts rather than aggressive buying. A possible price increase toward the end of January has been reported.

China Market

Low Growth and Waiting for the Chinese New Year

According to reports, bitumen prices delivered to China’s eastern coast were slightly higher than in the first half of January 2026. However, the market does not have strong demand, and current conditions are mainly due to low trading activity. Reports emphasize that buying activity remains limited, and some deals may be postponed until after the Chinese New Year holidays, as buyers are staying in a wait-and-see position.

Market Analysis of Iran

Rising Demand under Pressure from Exports and Unrest

In Iran, despite unrest and internet shutdowns for more than ten days, strong competition took place between producers during two rounds of bitumen feedstock supply. This shows improved demand and higher interest from different countries. At the same time, the dollar weakened slightly against the rial during the same period. Export operations are continuing despite slower processes, and it is expected that with a lower dollar against the rial, prices in Iran may rise above current levels.

Insight by Razieh Gilani from Infinity Galaxy

In the past week, political and geopolitical risks had a stronger impact on energy and bitumen markets than traditional supply and demand changes. The rise of Brent oil to around $65 was driven not by higher consumption, but by the combination of the long Russia-Ukraine war, aggressive US trade messages at Davos, and cautious investor behavior in a globally uncertain environment. These risks have pushed bitumen markets in most regions, from Europe to East Asia, into a cautious stabilization phase. Prices are not falling, but they need a stronger trigger to rise. The main difference is seen in markets like India and Iran, where real project-based demand is still active. However, even in these markets, decisions remain short-term, cautious, and closely linked to oil signals.

In today’s high-risk and uncertain environment, Infinity Galaxy continues to focus on transparency, constant responsiveness, and direct communication to maintain customer trust as a core principle, not a temporary choice.

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