Weekly Bitumen Report: Maduro Falls, Oil Price Cap; Why did the Market Stay Steady Instead of Afraid?

The Political and Economic Developments of the Week

Aggressive US Diplomacy with Maximum Pressure

After the arrest of Maduro during a military operation on January 3, 2026 in Venezuela, Trump also threatened Cuba and Colombia, but later invited the President of Colombia to the White House.
Also, the US says it has seized two tankers linked to Venezuela, one of them a tanker sailing under the Russian flag, and Moscow had asked the US to stop chasing it.
At the same time, Ukraine is under heavy military pressure, and Europe said that if Ukraine and Russia reach a peace deal; London and Paris have agreed that if Ukraine and Russia reach a peace deal, France and the UK will deploy their forces to secure Ukraine.

Crude and Fuel Oil Markets in East Asia

When Future Surplus Holds Today’s Price

The oil market this week did not see the “fall of Maduro” as an upside risk, but exactly as a price cap. The removal of Maduro on January 3 only caused a short mental jump to around $61-62, and then the market quickly fell. The reason was a return to the main scenario, meaning the gradual return of Venezuelan oil along with a forecast surplus of about 4 million barrels of supply in 2026. The result was Brent crude being locked in the range of $59-61.
On Thursday, January 8, the price of 180CSTfuel oil in Singapore reached $345, and the price of bitumen in Singapore and South Korea reached $355 and $330, respectively. Unlike the last week of 2025, the Singapore market stayed slow, and the small price drop was mostly due to New Year holidays and the lack of active buyers, not real supply pressure.
South Korea, in contrast to Singapore, recorded a slight price increase. Overall, buying demand was very limited.

Bitumen Market in Bahrain and Europe

Price correction without Demand; Markets not yet Awake

Bahrain bitumen stayed without movement around $400 and continued its 2025 trend. European prices, with a small correction, returned to the range of $315-335. The price move in Europe was opposite to the previous week, but it did not mean a return of demand; the European domestic market was basically on holiday.
With the market returning from early January, new downward pressure on domestic prices in Europe is expected to appear.

India Bitumen Market

India, A Temporary Exception on Asia’s Slow Map

In the Indian market, ongoing demand is supported by import data; Fuel Oil imports from Jun. 25 to Nov. 25 rose by about 16.8 thousand tons compared to the same period last year, with Mundra, Chennai, and Kakinada ports as the main centers of this growth.
This inflow, along with ongoing construction projects, has supported higher bitumen prices and has kept India temporarily separate from the slow phase of East Asia.
However, high price levels may later, especially if crude oil stays stable, increase the risk of demand adjustment in the coming weeks.

China Market

Waiting Mode; No Fall, No Return

The China market stayed almost unchanged. Unlike the very volatile weeks of December, this week there was neither new downward pressure nor a signal of demand return. The focus of Chinese buyers is on January and February, and until full activity returns after the holidays, the market remains in waiting mode.

Market Analysis of Iran

Local Increase Without Oil; When Disruption Replaces the Market

This week, due to problems from sharp currency swings, several days of closures because of severe cold, and also some strikes in certain cities, bitumen prices rose slightly at the end of the week despite no change in Brent oil prices. The reason is problems that have affected exports in recent months. It is expected that the limited price fluctuation trend will continue next week as well.

Insight by Razieh Gilani from Infinity Galaxy

The energy market at the start of 2026 has entered a phase where political headlines no longer set direction and only create short-term moves. The arrest of Maduro, political threats, and even tanker seizures, as long as they do not lead to real and lasting disruption in the real flow of bitumen and crude oil, are not seen by the market as upside risk. Oil absorbed this reality quickly and, by pricing in the gradual return of Venezuelan oil and the picture of a structural surplus in 2026, removed the geopolitical risk premium. The same logic has moved directly to the bitumen market: when oil has a cap and the market accepts future surplus, bitumen does not rise on news unless real operational disruption happens in production, logistics, currency, or exports. For this reason, in many markets from Singapore to Europe, flat or weak bitumen prices are more due to lack of active demand and a waiting mood than supply pressure; and wherever prices rise, like in Iran or at times in India, the main driver is local disruption and limits in execution, not a crude oil signal. The conclusion is clear: neither oil nor bitumen is traded on “noise” anymore, but on numbers, real physical flow, and operational risks.

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