Weekly Bitumen Report: End of 2025 with Political Risks and Split Markets; Energy in a Fragile Balance

The Political and Economic Developments of the Week

A Tense Christmas; Energy Policy Woke Up before the New Year

As Christmas 2025 arrives at the same time as the final weeks of the year, US foreign policy has entered the holidays with a tough signal. In recent days, Washington has seized several oil tankers linked to Venezuela’s oil exports and, at the same time, announced that, under its maximum pressure policy, it will place sea routes linked to Caracas under tighter blockade and military control. The stated goal of the US is to fully cut the financial flows of the Venezuelan government and send a warning message to buyers and middlemen of Venezuelan oil, a move that has, in practice, raised geopolitical tension in the energy sector right at the edge of the end of 2025.
On the European front, Ukraine has officially brought its 20-point peace plan into talks with the United States; however, deep disagreements remain over occupied territories and the way the plan would be carried out. At the same time, in the Middle East, international criticism of Israel’s new settlement plan in the West Bank has increased; a group of Western countries sees this move as against the path of a two-state solution, while the next stages of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire have still not been carried out.
In East Asia, the ASEAN group is trying through mediation to contain the border crisis between Thailand and Cambodia and revive the path toward a ceasefire.

Crude and Fuel Oil Markets in East Asia

Brent around 60 Dollars; Oversupply Keeps the Upper Hand

In the week ending December 25, 2025, Brent crude stayed around $61 as oversupply remains the main force in the market. Data shows global oil stocks are very high, and even higher production by OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries such as the US and Canada has added more downward pressure on prices.
For 2026 as well, trusted analysis and forecasts point to two opposing forces: most surveys, energy agencies, and market analysts expect supply to exceed demand and the average Brent price to stay near $55-62, but geopolitical risks could still support prices.
This means Brent crude in 2026 will most likely move in the same range or a bit lower. On Thursday, the price of Singapore 180CST fuel oil reached $345, and Singapore bitumen and South Korea bitumen reached $358 and $333, respectively.
Despite another drop in FOB prices in Singapore and Korea, the market is in practice locked in a trap of weak demand and enough supply, and even gradual support from Australia and New Zealand has not been able to break the pressure.

Bitumen Market in Bahrain and Europe

Europe under Structural Pressure; Bahrain still Standing

Europe, which was under pressure last week as well, became weaker this week. Christmas holidays, lower winter demand, and a fall in HSFO all pushed prices down at the same time. However, with the restart of a refinery in the Mediterranean, the region may see better supply conditions. European bitumen prices over the past week have moved between $310-340.
This means price pressure is not only seasonal; the supply structure is also changing, keeping the risk of further decline alive.
In contrast to Europe’s fall and the drop in HSFO, the Bahrain bitumen market has stayed locked in its previous range thanks to supply control and is, for now, acting as a price anchor for the region, although continued pressure from Europe could make this stability fragile.

India Bitumen Market

India against the Flow; the Local Market Replaced the World

Over the past two weeks, India’s bitumen market behaved in a completely opposite way to the global market. While most global markets pulled back under pressure from falling oil prices and seasonal demand, India’s clear rise in mid-December shows that the market’s focus is currently local, not global. This move is mainly due to active construction projects, refinery behavior, and a shift in focus from exports to the domestic market, but the durability of this path fully depends on continued local demand and on global market pressure not spilling over in the coming weeks. India is expected to experience $10 rise in bitumen prices on January 1, 2026.

China Market

A Calm Retreat; China in a Phase of Patience and Expectation Setting

Following the trend of previous weeks, prices delivered to China’s eastern coasts declined at a gentler pace. This was not due to a supply shock, but because of lower energy prices and the lack of real demand in construction projects. Unlike Europe, where project shutdowns caused sharp drops, the Chinese market is stepping back slowly and carefully. Importers are not in a hurry to buy and are waiting for a clear bottom price, while sellers are also not willing to offer more discounts. The result is a low-volume and cautious market that is currently in a price discovery phase, not the start of a new buying wave.

Market Analysis of Iran

Mild Year-End Decline; the Dollar was not the Key Factor

Bitumen prices in Iran fell slightly over the past week as the New Year holidays began in many countries. Although previous export problems, such as slower operations and issues with trade cards, are still not resolved, the sharp rise of the dollar against the rial was not the reason for the drop in bitumen prices in Iran. The main reason was lower demand due to the end of the calendar year. Current conditions will likely continue until mid-January as many markets remain closed.

Insight by Razieh Gilani from Infinity Galaxy

As the end of 2025 approaches, the global energy and bitumen market has entered a phase of divergence more than ever before. Brent crude is moving in a narrow range between oversupply and geopolitical risks. Europe is stepping back under the combined pressure of seasonality, supply structure, and weaker energy prices, while markets like India and Bahrain are taking a different path, and China is carefully adjusting expectations. In Iran as well, the limited price decline was mainly due to weaker year-end demand, not a currency shock or a basic market change. The shared message of all these developments is clear: 2026 will not be a year of fast decisions, but a year of risk management, smart patience, and choosing the right markets.
Infinity Galaxy hopes the new year, 2026, will be a calmer, clearer year full of steady opportunities for everyone active in this industry.

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