Weekly Bitumen Report: The Lights of an Increasing Bitumen Market are ON!
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Crude oil started the week at the level of 86 US dollars and till the time of preparing this report, it reached 89 US dollars. Although on Tuesday it dropped around 1 US dollars up to 85 US dollars, the analysts of the oil market do not forecast any sign or risk on the fall of crude oil price and even it might reach up to 90 US dollars or more till the middle of next week. Besides, the possibility of military conflicts between Russia and Ukraine as well as the rumors about the next meeting of OPEC and no increase of production are among the other reasons that surge of crude oil is more probable.
Although the trend of crude oil is upward, still many of the exporters are still busy with their old commitments and also the importers are involved with the cargoes of older rates and in many of the ports- especially Indian port, cheap cargoes can be found that is expected to be sold out in some days and new rates of the market will become more tangible for the importers. In Iran, the vacuum bottom competed from 14% to 34% among the refineries in the last week. Considering the wave of cold in the Middle East, the increase of crude oil, and the shortage of supply on vacuum bottom will lead to the raise of bitumen prices as the refineries have to compete on the supplied vacuum bottom more than any other time. The cold weather and high demand of the buyers might face the market with a shortage of vacuum bottom among the refineries that will lead to the raise of bitumen prices accordingly.
Bahrain, Singapore, and other main bitumen producers of the world have raised their bitumen prices in accordance with the rise of crude oil.
As it was mentioned in the previous analyses of Infinity Galaxy, Indian refineries will face the issue of supply if they do not increase their bitumen rates in the next fortnight and it is heard that the bitumen trend will be upward around 3,300 INR /MT (approx. 44 US dollars) in 1st Feb. 2022 that is rare in the last one year.
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In last week’s article, it was questioned whether the record of bitumen price in November 2021 will be broken? Now it is seen that crude oil has crossed the level of that time and accordingly petroleum products will face a surge of rate and buyers cannot be hopeful to have deals with a lower offer and high quality as there is a huge quantity of the cargoes stored in the inappropriate conditions and buyers should be cautious of any suspicious offers that breach the norm of market.
Within the next coming week, no risk of fall of rates is predicted and the upward market of bitumen still goes on strongly.
This market was prepared by Razieh Gilani, the sales manager of Infinity Galaxy (www.infinitygalaxy.org).
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