Weekly Bitumen Report: The World Surrounded by Tariff and Recession, Where are Crude and Bitumen Prices Destined?

The Political and Economic Developments of the Week

Trump, Tariffs, Fear in Markets, Is it a Start of Global Pressure Wave?

During the past week, the Gaza situation remained critically the same as before, and there was no progress in the proposed ceasefire between Israel and Hamas; the humanitarian crisis remained unchanged. The war between Russia and Ukraine continues with the same trend, and the meeting of Donald Trump’s agent with Putin did not make any changes in the war path either.
On August 1, Donald Trump issued a broad tariff directive, increasing the average tariff rate in 66 countries, including the European Union, Canada, and Taiwan, from 13.3% to 15.2%. The decision was met with negative reactions in the markets, and global indexes declined. A few days later, the tension was observed in India. Trump imposed a 25 percent tariff on Indian goods as India has not stopped the purchase of Russian crude oil. India called it an unfair action.
On August 5, there were numerous shakes in the markets in response to the tariff implementation and the labor market in America. With the slowdown in job creation and negative adjustments in statistics, pressures on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates have increased. However, a new report from the International Monetary Fund on the global economic outlook, released this week, estimates global growth for 2025 and 2026 at around 3%, which is somewhat promising despite tariff pressures and geopolitical tensions.

Crude and Fuel Oil Markets in East Asia

Decline in Brent, Rise in Supply, Fall in Hope

In the last week, several factors led to the fall of crude oil prices to $67.27. The reason for such a fall was mainly the result of the OPEC+ decision to increase production up to 574K barrels per day from September, a decline in consumers’ demand, tariff threats against India, and a decline in optimism in macroeconomic forecasts. As a result, Singapore’s 180CST closed at $418. Bitumen prices in Singapore and South Korea were traded at $450 and $415, respectively. Despite stability in the bitumen market, the markets of Singapore and South Korea faced some price rises in their bitumen. However, the customers are not willing to purchase at higher prices.

Bitumen Market in Bahrain and Europe

Bitumen Prices in Europe in Opposition to Holidays

In Bahrain, bitumen prices are still fixed at $400. However, the FOB bitumen prices in Europe faced a slight surge to reach the range of $420-470.
Despite a fall in demand due to the summer holiday, bitumen prices in Europe still support the rise of HSFO.

India Bitumen Market

India Surrounded by Tariffs and Monsoon, Downtrend of Bitumen Prices

Bitumen prices in India faced another fall on August 1, and it is expected to fall further, considering the monsoon season and new tariffs imposed by America, there are no positive changes in the local market.

China Market

Temporary Growth, Gradual Fall, Following Caution Phase

The import price in East China faced a $5 decline, while a $5 to $6 increase had been recorded the previous week. High inventory levels in refineries and the absence of major consumption projects have kept the market trend in China downward and under pressure. However, the market is anticipating positive signs for a change in trend.

Market Analysis of Iran

Iran Export in a Triangle of Electricity, Raw Material, and Delivery Crisis

Electricity imbalance, shortage of raw material, surge in production costs, and longer delivery period put Iran’s bitumen export under more pressure than ever. Presently, there is no promising outlook about Iran’s bitumen market, and the current situation seems to continue in August too.

Insight by Razieh Gilani from Infinity Galaxy

In the week when Trump’s tariff game entered a new phase and at the same time OPEC+ tightened the supply environment with increased production, most bitumen markets experienced fragile stability or continued decline.
In India and China, demand pressure continues, Europe is caught up in holidays, and in Iran, logistical and production issues have made it difficult to even maintain current prices.
In such circumstances, Infinity Galaxy is working to identify the right moment for buying or selling for its clients by analyzing real-time political developments and global prices. We believe that in today’s murky business environment, transparency and genuine analysis are the rarest and most valuable assets.

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