Weekly Bitumen Report: Will New Tensions in Ukraine and Lebanon Become the Next Driver of Volatility in Oil and Bitumen Markets?

The Political and Economic Developments of the Week

Three Unstable Fronts in the World

In Europe, the Ukraine war has entered a new phase. The Kremlin says it has received a revised peace plan and will meet Trump’s special envoy in Moscow next week, but there is still no real sign of a deal between the two sides.
In the Middle East, the situation has become worrying again, as Israel has hit several targets in southern Lebanon with drones and missiles- a level of tension that no longer looks like limited skirmishes.
At the same time, China is facing three pressures at once. Trump’s new tariffs have triggered a second round of trade war, putting China’s market under strain. Official data shows slower economic growth, and both production and consumption remain weak. Alongside this, Taiwan’s president warned about China’s rising military readiness, and Taiwan’s USD 40 billion defense budget shows that East Asia’s geopolitical climate is heating up.

Crude and Fuel Oil Markets in East Asia

Slow Decline in East

On Thursday, 27 November, Singapore 180CST fuel oil reached $341, and Singapore and South Korea bitumen prices stood at $385 and $355, respectively.
Prices in East Asia are still falling; however, the drop is smaller compared with last week.

Bitumen Market in Bahrain and Europe

Europe Holds, Bahrain Stays Steady

Bitumen prices in Bahrain remain fixed at USD 400, with no change despite wider market volatility.
In Europe, unlike last week, the market showed some resistance to further declines, with bitumen prices staying between $340- 390.

India Bitumen Market

Expecting a Rise, but Buying Is Weak

In India, the market is still waiting for a $15-17 increase on 1 December, but last week’s reality was different.
Demand fell due to scattered rainfall, high stock levels, and cautious behavior from importers.
This combination of “expected price hikes” and “short-term weak demand” is a typical year-end pattern in India, where the market often pauses before the next upward move.

China Market

Deep Slowdown Across East Asia

China’s market saw another USD 5-10 drop this week, making it the weakest market in Asia.
Seasonal conditions have slowed construction, and government entities have limited their year-end purchasing.
Oversupply continues across the region, and even Singapore’s discounts have not been enough to trigger stronger demand.
While limited supply from Iran is supporting prices there, China remains firmly in a downturn.

Market Analysis of Iran

Iran Moves Against the Global Trend

Iran’s bitumen market stayed bullish and was the only major market moving upward.
Lower supply, weather-related disruptions, and stronger demand from Asia kept prices high.
In some African and East Asian destinations, price ceilings are being reshaped based on Iran prices.
However, production in Iran remains highly sensitive to any shift in VB prices.

Insight by Razieh Gilani from Infinity Galaxy

This week sends a clear message: the global market is moving toward a slowdown, but Iran- supported by tight supply and steady Asian demand- is following its own path. Falling prices in China, India, and East Asia show that demand pressure is not over, but any shock in VB or Bandar Abbas can shift the region’s balance again. In these conditions, Iran is not just following the market- rather, it is helping set new price levels in parts of East Asia and Africa.

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