Weekly Oil Report: Is the Price Really on a Hike?

Crude oil had the biggest weekly growth since March 2022 and it shocked the market. Bitumen also got hot last week. Is this really a change of trend?

Brent closed at $98.33 and WTI settled at $93.13 on Friday, 7 October.

In the daily chart of WTI, we can detect a hidden divergence in MACD and price. Friday’s movement was strong but it was not significant to the strong yearly pivot resistance and stayed below 200 MA. It can be only a fake breakout.

OPEC+ decided on a new cut of 2 million BPD for November. Biden believes that the action is a short-sighted decision.

The America’s new economic reports were indicating strong inflation. As a result, the dollar’s strengthening is putting more pressure on other countries and currencies.

Though Saudi has stated that they have no intention of an oil war with the US, the crude price is getting out of control and it can definitely affect the result of the US November elections.

China’s economic report shows that the country is deeply troubled after the pandemic.

Europe is in much deeper Gas and energy trouble than ever before. Many believe that the Ukraine war might be entering a new phase as the Russian forces have evacuated several places leaving arms and equipment behind. The fast withdrawal made many suspicious about Russia’s intention to use nuclear weapons. The huge explosion of Kerch Bridge which links Russia to Crimea has intensified the fears.

Bitumen price has been increasing in the Middle East and it is backed up by fuel growth.

Iran had a hot competition over the vacuum bottom, something more than 40% on October 9. There are also new rumours about restarting the JCPOA talks.

India is now uncertain about the validity of its own bitumen price decrease. Rupee is at the lowest rate against USD in the recent years and traders are shocked.

Currently, Iran’s new steel drum is in the range of $400 – $410. Singapore bulk was $560 – $565, south Korea 60/80 was $500-505 and Bahrain was $425 on Friday, 7 October.