Weekly Oil Report: Is the Price Exhausted to Go Higher?

Crude oil set for the 6^th month of consecutive fall. The drop happened despite all the concerns about tight supply and demand improvement.

On April 28, Brent oil closed around $80.25 and WTI settled above $76.61.

The strong resistance at $87 is holding on since November 2022 and the price doesn’t seem to have enough momentum to break through at the moment. You can see several resistances (R) and supports (S) on the chart where the price might show a reaction. Considering the sudden fall of crude, we might expect a couple of days of correction.

Based on the price movements, the unexpected cut of OPEC could not cause any lasting bullish sentiment except for the sudden pump on 3 April. Since then, the price has been trapped in the illustrated area and it may continue for a while.

The geopolitical tension of the Middle East may also slightly change the sentiments but it will not have any long-term effect. This includes the new conflicts of Iran and the US seizing each other’s oil tankers.

The financial institutions mostly revised their 2023 oil forecast for prices in the range of 90. Even after the possibility of the tight supply, they didn’t see 100 for crude oil.  

Fuel and bitumen couldn’t grow higher under the pressure of crude oil. On 1 May, India decreased bitumen prices by 16 USD in several ports and increased the prices by 2 USD in some others. The unorganised decisions are seen in other markets too due to uncertainties on crude oil and the economy.

Below, you can check several bitumen prices in different regions.