Weekly Bitumen Report: Talks in Oman, the Market on the Edge of Risk; Has the Middle East Entered a Decision Phase?

The Political and Economic Developments of the Week

From News Shock to the Return of Diplomacy; the Middle East Remains on Alert

On Wednesday night, February 4, Axios reported, quoting US officials, that the Iran-US meeting was canceled due to disagreements over the venue and the agenda of the talks. This caused signs of tension to appear for a few hours across markets such as gold, Tether, and oil prices. But with the entry of regional mediators and the transfer of the talks to Oman, news sources reported that the negotiations returned to their previous schedule. At the same time, a tweet from Iran’s foreign minister stressed that the meeting itself still stands, and the differences are more about the format and agenda than the principle of negotiation. On a broader level, alongside these diplomatic issues, the US is deploying a wide military presence in the Persian Gulf and the eastern Mediterranean, while Iran is also on full alert and rebuilding its missile capability.

At the same time, peace talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the US are being held in Abu Dhabi. The first day was described by Ukraine as useful and constructive, but no agreement has yet been reached on a ceasefire or the final status of occupied areas. The Ukrainian president called this process a new stage of negotiations, while also stressing that Ukraine is not willing to bargain over its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

However, it seems that global tensions have not decreased, and more challenges may still lie ahead.

Crude and Fuel Oil Markets in East Asia

Oil between $65-70; Price Bottom Forming under the Shadow of Geopolitical Risk

Over the past week, Brent oil prices held a bottom level around $65, as supply risk rose due to growing tensions between Iran and the US in the Middle East, while demand was not weak enough to cause a deeper drop, either. Wednesday’s jump on February 4 to nearly $70 was mainly driven by the news shock of an Iranian drone being shot down near a US naval vessel, expectations that OPEC+ would not quickly raise production, and the report about canceling the meeting of the Iranian foreign minister and US nominated agent. On Thursday, as emotions cooled, oil prices returned to around $68.

On Thursday, Brent oil reached $68.71, Singapore CST180 fuel increased significantly and reached $418, and Singapore bitumen and South Korea bitumen reached $366 and $349, respectively.

Unlike last week, when the market was fully neutral, this week the effect of 68-dollar crude oil can be seen in the formation of a bottom price for bitumen in East Asia. Prices made a small jump, but the market is waiting for the next signal from oil or geopolitical conditions.

Bitumen Market in Bahrain and Europe

Europe under Pressure from Oil and HSFO; Prices Stay High, Demand is Weak

Prices in Bahrain remain unchanged at $400, but prices in Europe are rising under pressure from higher HSFO and oil prices. Demand is low due to weather conditions in Europe, yet sellers are not willing to offer deeper discounts, and European prices are fluctuating in the $350- 375 range.

India Bitumen Market

India Moves Out of the Waiting Phase; Early Signals of an Uptrend Appear

Prices in India are rising with higher geopolitical risk and Brent oil entering the $65-70 range. Unlike previous weeks, the market is showing signs of increased buying, and it is likely entering an upward phase.

China Market

China in a Stability Test; High Oil versus New Year Holidays

Following last week’s improvement, limited projects remain active, and prices have strengthened slightly. However, the market is still in a testing phase. Brent stabilizing above $68 could build a new bottom price, but there is still no final decision. The approach of the Chinese New Year holidays is also affecting demand levels.

Market Analysis of Iran

Iran ahead of the Oman Meeting; Market Ready to React to Policy

Over the past week, Iran’s bitumen prices have also risen, and the export average has moved higher. Operational export issues remain, but buying requests have increased compared to last week. Iran’s market has reacted mainly to risk and operational limits, and this week, after the meeting of the Iran and US politicians in Oman, we should watch for the market’s response to events.

Insight by Razieh Gilani from Infinity Galaxy:

What we saw in the markets this week was not just price movement, but a change in decision logic. The return of Iran-US talks to the Oman track, alongside the military positioning in the Middle East, led the energy market to price in the risk scenario before any actual event occurred. In such an environment, a “low price” is no longer a reliable buying benchmark because execution risk, logistics, insurance, and supply continuity have become far more important. Today in the Middle East, buyers cannot purchase from just any supplier; the market is moving toward companies and brands that show real execution ability, transparency, and commitment under tense conditions. Experience shows that in these phases, those who remain are not just sellers, but dependable project partners, even if their price is not the lowest in the market.