Weekly Bitumen Report: Bahrain Bitumen Prices Explode; Singapore Calm, Iran Cautious

The Political and Economic Developments of the Week

Deterrence or the Start of a New Risk Phase?
The security equation of the Persian Gulf became one level more sensitive last week. The increased US naval presence is seen as part of mutual deterrence, not a sign of the start of war, but an effort to manage risk in an environment where tensions in Gaza, the Lebanon border, and the Red Sea are active at the same time. Iran has also emphasized regional stability and no disruption to energy flows in its official positions, and so far oil infrastructure has remained fully operational. However, the oil market reacts more to the possibility of rising tensions than to actual supply conditions. At the same time, the meeting between the Israeli Prime Minister and Trump was seen by analysts more as a message of strategic coordination and increased political pressure than a signal of immediate military action. Meanwhile, strong US employment data has delayed expectations of a fast interest rate cut and has kept the dollar in a stronger position; the mix of geopolitical risk and tighter monetary policy has, for now, kept a cautious mood in global markets.

Executive Market Snapshot:

The Middle East premium risk premium has become active again, and oil has settled on a higher base.
The $150 jump in Bahrain has changed short-term expectations in the bitumen market.
The chance of a sharp short-term correction seems limited unless regional tensions ease.
East Asia is in a balanced phase, but weak demand has not led to a price drop.

East Asia Oil and Fuel Market

Brent at $69; Temporary Ceiling or Launch Pad?
This week Brent prices reached around $69. The main reason for Brent staying in the $65–$70 range is the combination of Middle East geopolitical risk and the return of the premium risk in the market. Oil traders are currently focusing more on the possibility of rising tensions than on demand data. At the same time, signals of supply control and production management from OPEC+ have also prevented a major price drop.
If tensions increase by one level, a move of Brent toward the $70–$75 range would not be unexpected from a market behavior point of view.
On Thursday, February 12, Singapore CST 180 fuel oil reached $434, while Singapore bitumen and Korea bitumen were priced at $364 and $350, respectively.
South Korean bitumen saw a $9 increase. Buying activity in Southeast Asia before the Chinese New Year holidays is weak, but seller resistance has prevented prices from falling.

Bahrain and Europe Bitumen Market

$150 Jump in Bahrain; Emotional Reaction or Phase Change?
This week, Bahrain bitumen prices rose by $150 after months of stability. Analysts believe this move is driven more by regional geopolitical risks than by real demand growth. Europe also saw a limited increase, with European bitumen prices moving in the $355–$370 range.

India Bitumen Market

Price Growth Without Buying Excitement
India’s domestic market saw price increases this week, but the rise was mainly due to higher oil prices rather than increased demand. Buyer behavior in India is seen as more rational and cautious compared to January.

China Market

Technical Factors Ahead of Fundamentals; What Happens After the New Year?
Bitumen prices in China rose in line with oil prices. Unlike the relative demand slowdown in some Southeast Asian countries, the China market is currently moving more on technical factors than fundamentals. With the start of the Chinese New Year holidays, a temporary drop in demand is possible, but so far there are no signs of a meaningful decline.

Iran Market Analysis

Why Has Iran Waited Despite Higher Feedstock Prices?
Despite the $150 increase in Bahrain and more than a 30% rise in bitumen feedstock base prices, the Iranian market has not seen a matching increase. This caution is mainly due to concerns among some buyers about regional developments. However, from a technical point of view, if current conditions continue, a price increase in February and March would not be unexpected.

Decision Exposure This Week:

For Traders:
The market is pricing in risk, and the current range may become a new short-term base.
Sensitivity to geopolitical headlines remains high.
The chance of a deep short-term correction seems limited unless tensions decrease.

For Project Buyers:
Delaying decisions may expose procurement budgets to upward revision.
Even if oil remains stable, a gradual transfer of the premium risk into bitumen prices is likely.
In the current high-risk environment, supply continuity is becoming more important than just price entry points.
In previous market phases with active geopolitical risk, bitumen adjusted upward even when oil was relatively stable; therefore, current stability does not necessarily mean no price risk.

Razieh Gilani from Infinity Galaxy

Under current conditions, the global bitumen market is reacting more to “possibility” than to actual supply and demand. The Bahrain jump reflects the premium risk, while Iran, despite a strong rise in feedstock base prices, is moving cautiously, showing buyer hesitation in a tense regional environment. Europe has weak demand, Asia is balanced, and Africa has become more active, but the market direction is not yet fully set. If regional tensions increase, a full transfer of oil and HSFO gains into the bitumen market in February and March is likely.
If current price levels become a new short-term base, what is your strategy to manage price risk over the next 30 to 45 days?