Weekly Bitumen Report: Is Global Bitumen Market Ready to Pass Tension and Recession?

The Political and Economic Developments of the Week

Are Tariff War and Repeated Political Tension Threats for the Economy?

On July 15, Donald Trump announced a commercial agreement with Indonesia to avoid the implementation of 32% initial tariffs and reduce the tariffs to up to 19%. In response, Indonesia committed to purchase 50 Boeing jets, $15bn worth of US energy, and $4.5bn in American agricultural products.
He also threatened to apply a 40-percent tariff against drug and technology products of 14 other countries from August 1.
On July 14 and 15, Israel attacked the positions of Syria’s government. The negotiations for a proposed 60-day ceasefire between Hamas and Israel are going on in Qatar, mediated by the U.S.; however, hopes have diminished.
In the meantime, in East Asia, based on a Reuters poll performed on July 11, China’s GDP grew 5.1% in the second quarter of 2025, which indicates a decrease from the previously forecasted level.
In Russia, Putin keeps invading Ukraine and seizing more land. Trump was involved in this political-economic game through his military aids, setting a 50-day deadline, and a threat to impose sanctions against buyers of Russia’s oil. At the same time, the heavy airstrike of Russia on the west of Ukraine was intensified using drones and missiles. Ukraine keeps defending itself using drones.

Crude and Fuel Oil Markets in East Asia

Stability in Crude Oil Prices, A Balance or Warning in the Markets?

During the last week, crude oil prices rose by around $70 due to various reasons like the rise in summer demand, a positive economic outlook in the second half of the year in the world, the partial control of new geopolitical threats, and the control of the rise in OPEC+ supply. All these factors preserved oil prices in the range of $68-70 during the past week.
On July 17, Singapore’s 180CST closed at $411. Bitumen prices in Singapore and South Korea closed at $443 & $412, respectively.

Bitumen Market in Bahrain and Europe

Any Return of Price Stability in Europe?

The European markets observed a relative demand stability in the north of the continent during the last week. During this period, the trend of bitumen prices in Europe was stable with a slight increase, but demand was lower than usual. The price of bitumen on this continent varied between $420-480, depending on the ports.
Like the previous weeks, bitumen prices in Bahrain remained the same at the level of $400, and there were no significant changes.

India Bitumen Market

Demand Recession in Monsoon Season

India’s bitumen market is still under pressure of demand recession and experienced a fall of $5.5 on July 15. Currently, the Indian importers mainly prefer local consumption and supply from their domestic refineries, and bitumen imports have generally reduced. The current trend seems to continue till mid. August.

China Market

Price Stability

In China’s market, there is a noticeable relative stability in prices and a stagnation in transactions. Despite the prices remaining within the previous range, due to weaknesses in projects, it does not seem that we will witness an upward trend in bitumen imports. Currently, bitumen suppliers in Southeast Asia are the main competitors of Middle Eastern bitumen for China.

Market Analysis of Iran

Iran’s Efforts to Overcome Cost Pressures and Export Recession

Despite demand reduction in Iran’s market due to the shortage of raw material and rise in local expenses and export additional costs, bitumen prices in Iran rose, and there was no significant growth in bitumen export to the various markets. It was also announced that the war risk surcharge was removed from shipping costs with the elimination of war risk in the country.

Insight by Razieh Gilani from Infinity Galaxy

With the easing of war risks and a gradual increase in construction activities in Europe and Asia, the outlook for the bitumen market continues to improve steadily, but not dramatically. The markets in India and China are expected to remain in relative recession until the end of summer, but with the start of new construction projects in the autumn season, there is a possibility of a temporary increase in demand and prices.

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