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Africa's bitumen market is moving in different directions. West Africa faces higher replacement costs despite weak demand, while East Africa sees lower prices but tighter supply and shipping constraints. **At Infinity Galaxy, we believe procurement today depends less on headline prices and more on cargo availability, logistics, and delivery certainty.
Geopolitical Uncertainty Is Creating Different Realities Across African Bitumen Markets
Following continued air strikes by the United States on Iran and Iran’s retaliatory attacks against US interests in the Persian Gulf region, Brent crude has moved back above 90 USD/bbl, while the outlook for regional stability remains unclear.
For African bitumen markets, the impact is already visible. Buyers are facing a market where price movements alone no longer explain the full picture.
This situation has created a clear divergence across African markets. While some regions are experiencing higher replacement costs, others are facing weaker demand, seasonal pressure, or different supply challenges. Africa is no longer moving as one single bitumen market.
CFR Lagos prices increased by approximately 58 USD per tonne compared with the previous assessment, reaching around 677–687 USD/t. Higher HSFO values, stronger Mediterranean premiums, and rising freight costs have all contributed to this increase.
The domestic market, however, has followed a different path. Heavy rainfall, slower infrastructure activity, and delayed government payments have reduced domestic truck prices by around 30,000 NGN per tonne, bringing them to approximately 1.24–1.30 million NGN.
Nigeria is currently a two-speed market. Import replacement costs have increased significantly, while domestic buyers remain cautious due to weather-related project delays. Purchasing decisions should consider import costs, domestic availability, and the expected pace of project recovery together.
CFR Ghana increased by around 57 USD per tonne, while FOB Abidjan in Ivory Coast also rose by more than 57 USD per tonne.
These increases have occurred despite subdued seasonal demand caused by continued rainfall across West Africa. The price movement has been driven primarily by higher supply costs, HSFO values, regional premiums, and freight rather than stronger consumption.
Cargo flows through Abidjan and the regional hub of Lomé continue, although trading activity involving SMB Refinery has recently become more limited.
Lower seasonal demand does not necessarily improve buyers' negotiating power when replacement costs continue to rise. Buyers should carefully verify cargo availability and loading schedules before making purchasing decisions.
CFR drum prices for Mombasa and Dar es Salaam declined by around 7 USD per tonne.
However, this should not be interpreted as a genuine easing of the market. Renewed regional tensions, disrupted shipping routes, and operational interruptions at several Iranian loading points have made new transactions increasingly difficult.
Freight rates from Bandar Abbas and Jebel Ali to Mombasa and Dar es Salaam remain elevated at around 250–260 USD per tonne. Importantly, freight has remained stable not because the market has normalized, but because actual trading activity has slowed significantly.
Two IRISL vessels that departed Bandar Abbas during the brief reopening of trade routes are currently expected to arrive around 20–22 July, following several delays. However, the actual bitumen volumes onboard have not yet been confirmed.
For buyers in Kenya and Tanzania, lower prices only create value when cargoes can actually be loaded, paid for, and delivered. Execution certainty continues to be more important than nominal pricing.
Road infrastructure projects remain active across Kenya, Uganda, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
However, tighter imports into East Africa continue to limit truck deliveries to inland markets.
This suggests that demand is not the primary challenge in Uganda and the DRC. The key issue remains access to supply and the practical execution of logistics.
For buyers in Uganda and the DRC, a few dollars of price difference rarely outweigh the commercial value of reliable suppliers, workable logistics, and dependable delivery schedules.
Domestic prices have remained stable at around ZAR 14,000–14,500 per tonne.
Several cargoes are either arriving or already heading toward South Africa, while winter weather continues to limit bitumen consumption.
Additional supply from Pakistan, the Mideast Gulf, and the Eastern Mediterranean may gradually increase competition, although market conditions remain highly dependent on actual cargo arrivals and domestic demand.
South Africa is not facing an immediate supply shortage. Instead, the market is adjusting to higher incoming supply during its seasonal slowdown, making inventory levels and cargo arrivals more important than headline prices.
Africa is no longer reacting as a single market.
In West Africa, cargo replacement costs have increased sharply despite weak seasonal demand.
In East Africa, nominal prices have softened, yet supply risks and logistics constraints have intensified.
Across inland markets such as Uganda and the DRC, logistics execution continues to outweigh price movements.
Meanwhile, South Africa is experiencing higher supply during a period of subdued seasonal demand.
The key message this week is straightforward:
Lower prices do not necessarily mean easier procurement, and higher prices do not always reflect stronger demand. Each market should be evaluated independently based on cargo availability, route reliability, and delivery certainty.
Every African market is responding differently. If you are following a specific country, I'd be interested to hear what you're seeing on the ground.
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