Weekly Bitumen Report: Bitumen in India Jumps by $55; Asian Bitumen Remains Bullish Despite the Decline in Brent

The most important market development this week was no longer political. From October 1, Indian refiners increased VG30 prices by around $48 per metric ton and VG40 by nearly $55 per metric ton.

This follows two previous price increases in September and shows how quickly replacement costs are rising in one of the world’s largest bitumen-consuming markets. At the same time, Brent crude, unlike in previous weeks, retreated from an early-week high of around $108 per barrel. This divergence between crude oil and bitumen has become the main market story of the week.

Brent Retreats from the High, but the Crisis Is Not Over

Brent rose to around $108 per barrel on Monday, September 28, amid the deadlock in Iran-US negotiations. However, as part of Middle East exports returned, Saudi export flows improved and more oil moved through alternative routes, selling pressure increased. By the morning of October 1, Brent was trading around $96 per barrel.

The recent decline therefore reflects a relative improvement in physical oil flows rather than a political resolution or a full normalization of shipping through the Hormuz Strait.

Indirect negotiations between Iran and the United States, mediated by Qatar, are continuing, but they have not yet resulted in a formal and sustainable reopening of the Hormuz Strait or a broader political agreement. Still, the continuation of talks is being interpreted by the oil market as a positive signal.

Inflation and Interest Rates Return to the Energy Story

Outside the oil market, economic pressure is also increasing. Inflation in parts of the European Union has again moved above expectations, while bond yields in the United States and other major economies have reached multi-year highs. In the US, softer-than-expected inflation has reduced expectations of an immediate rate hike, but bond markets remain highly sensitive to energy-driven price pressures.

In Japan, the central bank is still debating the continuation of tighter monetary policy after its latest rate increase. Meanwhile, the United States and China extended their trade truce for another two months. This has reduced part of the risk surrounding global trade, but it has not removed the pressure created by high energy costs and the rising cost of capital.

East Asia Bitumen: Fuel Oil Falls, but Bitumen Moves Higher

Recent international market reports, including Platts, show one of the clearest signs yet that bitumen is separating from the daily movement of crude oil and fuel oil. On Wednesday, September 30, Singapore HSFO 180 CST was around $677 per metric ton, while Singapore bitumen was assessed at around $755 per metric ton.

South Korean bitumen also increased by around $10 to approximately $740 per metric ton.
This market behavior suggests that tight bitumen supply is still having a stronger impact than the short-term decline in fuel oil.

In South China, bitumen export prices have also reached around $810–830 per metric ton FOB. A shortage of Singapore cargoes has pushed more Southeast Asian buyers toward Chinese supply. China’s bitumen exports during the first eight months of the year have already exceeded the country’s total exports in 2025.

India Bitumen: The Post-Monsoon Season Begins with a Price Shock

In India, the October 1 adjustment was significantly larger than the two previous increases in September. VG30 rose by around $48 per metric ton, while VG40 increased by nearly $55 per metric ton.

This comes as the market enters the post-monsoon period and demand from road construction projects is gradually returning, while imported supply remains limited and expensive. As a result, the market should now be prepared for a new wave of buying interest from India.

Europe Bitumen Prices Remain Calmer; Bahrain Holds at $550

Europe remains much calmer than Asia, with demand still relatively weak. The overall export bitumen price range in Europe is currently around $560-585 per metric ton.
Bahrain bitumen also remained unchanged in September at around $550 per metric ton FOB.

Iran Bitumen: Feedstock Becomes More Expensive

In Iran, Vacuum Bottom prices increased by around 13%, while buying interest for VB also remained strong. At the same time, limited vessel availability, sanctions, expensive freight and uncertain delivery schedules continue to be the main constraints on seaborne exports.

For this reason, the large price gap between Iranian bitumen and Asian markets still does not automatically translate into a full commercial advantage. However, that price gap is clearly creating significant buying interest among customers.

Insight from Razieh Gilani at Infinity Galaxy: When the Market Rises, the Cheapest Price Is Not Always the Right Price

In a market where India can increase by nearly $50 per metric ton in a single move, Singapore bitumen can rise even as fuel oil falls, and Brent can fluctuate by more than $10 within a few days, the quality of an offer cannot be judged by price alone.

A credible seller must be able to explain how long the price is valid, how much product is actually available, and whether the shipping route is genuinely executable. In this kind of market, speed of response and transparency become part of the price itself, because customers need more than a number - they need confidence that the transaction can actually be completed.