Weekly Bitumen Report: The Broadest U.S. Economic Pressure Campaign Arrives Alongside New Diplomatic Hopes; Brent Falls Back Toward $86

The market changed direction within just a few days. Iran and Oman have resumed talks over establishing a temporary shipping corridor through the Hormuz Strait and clearing mines, while Pakistan has reported “significant progress” in its discussions with Tehran aimed at reducing tensions. At the same time, Washington has launched what it describes as the broadest sanctions campaign ever imposed on a country. The market is therefore receiving two opposing signals: the possibility of reopening maritime routes is increasing, while U.S. economic pressure on Iran remains intense.

Hormuz Strait Looks More Promising on Paper, but Not Yet in Practice

Vessel traffic tells the story more clearly. The 10-day average through the Hormuz Strait has been around 15 vessels per day, still far below pre-war levels. It is therefore too early to speak of normalization. The oil market is now seriously pricing in the possibility of a reopening, but actual shipping activity has yet to confirm that optimism.

Brent Oil Falls More Than $8 in Just a Few Days

Brent crude, which closed near $94 per barrel last Friday, fell to around $86 per barrel on 27 August as expectations increased that Iran-Oman negotiations could restore part of the energy flow through the Hormuz Strait. This was the lowest level in more than two weeks.

The decline reflects a change in market expectations from a scenario of prolonged disruption toward a possible limited reopening, rather than any significant increase in physical supply. If negotiations fail to translate into higher vessel traffic, part of this decline could quickly be reversed.

East Asia: Oil Falls, but Bitumen Has Yet to Give a Strong Bearish Signal

According to international market reports, Singapore 180 CST fuel oil traded at around $622 per metric ton, while Singapore Bitumen increased on a weekly basis to around $635 per metric ton and South Korea Bitumen reached approximately $545 per metric ton.

The latest East Asian market information also indicates that a large share of Singapore’s September cargoes has already been sold, meaning the decline in crude oil has not yet been reflected in bitumen at the same speed. Meanwhile, export Bitumen Prices from southern China have been reported at around $630 per metric ton, as regional supply shortages continue to create export opportunities despite delayed domestic demand.

India: Monsoon Keeps Demand Weak as Bitumen Imports Fall by Half

The India Bitumen Market remains under pressure from monsoon rainfall, with road projects progressing slowly. State-owned refineries partially reversed earlier price reductions during the second half of August, increasing VG30 and VG40 prices by around $3-$4 per metric ton.

The larger change, however, is in imports. India imported approximately 905,000 metric tons of bitumen during the first half of 2026, nearly 50% lower than a year earlier. If current conditions continue, exceptionally high freight costs and shipping risks are unlikely to favour importers.

European Bitumen Remains Higher with Fuel Oil; Bahrain Holds at $550

In Europe, export Bitumen Prices have remained elevated despite weak summer demand, mainly because of the earlier increase in HSFO values. The overall European market, from the Mediterranean to northern Europe, is currently in the range of approximately $540–$565 per metric ton.

In Bahrain, the official Bitumen Price remains unchanged for another week at around $550 per metric ton FOB.

Iran: Lower Brent Is Not Enough; the Market Is Waiting for a Real Maritime Reopening

In Iran, land exports to neighboring countries continue to increase, while maritime exports remain almost entirely dependent on conditions in the Hormuz Strait. As a result, the decline in the Brent Oil Price has so far had limited impact on Iran Bitumen Prices.

The market is still waiting for practical signals that regular maritime exports can resume. Until that happens, the key issue is not simply where Brent trades, but whether vessels can move reliably, safely and at commercially workable costs.

Insight from Razieh Gilani: This Week, the Validity of a Price Matters More Than the Price Itself

In a market where Brent can move by more than $8 in a few days and a single development around the Hormuz Strait can change shipping conditions, a credible seller is not simply the one who responds with a price quickly. The seller must also explain how long that price remains valid, which route supports it, and under what conditions it can actually be executed.

Fast response only creates value when it is transparent. Customers can adapt to changing prices; they find it much harder to deal with silence, uncertainty, or promises that cannot be executed. This is where trust becomes a genuine commercial advantage.

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