Weekly Bitumen Report: Tensions Rise Again as Renewed U.S. Strikes on Iran Push Brent Back Toward $95

It took less than a week for the energy market outlook to change again. Brent crude was below $90 last Friday, while traders were still considering the possibility of progress in negotiations to increase shipping traffic through the Hormuz Strait. However, renewed U.S. strikes on targets in Iran and Iran’s response across the region erased much of that optimism. At the same time, two VLCCs carrying Saudi crude were attacked while exiting the Hormuz Strait, showing that the risk surrounding this route is no longer limited to Iranian exports and could directly affect oil flows from other Persian Gulf producers.

The Hormuz Strait Is No Longer Simply About Being “Open or Closed” - It Is About Predictability

This week’s data continues to show significant fluctuations in shipping traffic through the Hormuz Strait. The United States said around 17 million barrels of oil passed through the strait on Monday, the highest volume since the war began. Yet only one day later, Kpler data showed that just four commercial vessels transited the route, compared with a daily average of around 13 vessels over the previous 10 days. This contrast shows that while large cargoes can still move through the strait, shipping traffic remains irregular and difficult to predict.

Brent Rebounds from $89 to Around $95 in Just a Few Days

By August 28, Brent had fallen to $89.31 per barrel amid market speculation about a possible agreement over the Hormuz Strait. However, following the renewed escalation, Brent climbed back to around $95 per barrel on September 3. In just a few days, the market recovered almost all of the previous week’s losses, not because of a confirmed new supply shortage, but because the risk of a more serious disruption to Middle East energy flows returned.

The Supply Chain Is No Longer Waiting for the Hormuz Strait to Normalize

More important than the oil price itself is the fact that energy companies are developing alternative solutions. LNG cargoes from Qatar and the UAE destined for India and Japan have used ship-to-ship transfers outside the Hormuz Strait, an unusual practice that shows the market is gradually adapting to an unstable shipping route. Iraq also increased its oil exports to around 2.34 million barrels per day in August, partly supported by the ability of some Iraqi tankers to transit the Hormuz Strait.

East Asia: Fuel Oil Moves Higher Again, While Limited Bitumen Supply Keeps Prices Firm

According to international market reports, Singapore 180 CST fuel oil reached around $600 per metric ton by September 2, while Singapore bitumen remained around $650 per metric ton and South Korean bitumen traded at approximately $580 per metric ton.
In China, export bitumen from the south of the country continues to be offered at around $620–635 per metric ton FOB southern Chinese ports, while domestic bitumen prices in eastern and southern China are also continuing to rise.

India: Monsoon Demand Remains Weak, but Refineries Raise Bitumen Prices

Bitumen market reports continued to indicate weak monsoon-season demand and limited buying interest for imported cargoes in India through August 28. However, an important change took effect from September 1: according to the latest refinery announcement, VG30 prices increased by around $12 per metric ton and VG40 by around $14 per metric ton.
This increase is significantly larger than the limited adjustment seen in the second half of August and suggests that even before bitumen demand fully recovers, cost pressures and supply constraints can push official Indian refinery prices higher.

Europe Moves Lower; Bahrain Remains Unchanged

Europe is showing almost the opposite picture to East Asia. A sharp decline in HSFO and lower bitumen premiums pushed export cargo prices noticeably lower at the end of August, with the overall European market trading in a range of approximately $504-530 per metric ton.
Supply is reported to be sufficient across many European markets, while demand has not yet fully returned to normal levels following the summer holiday period.
In Bahrain, the official bitumen price remained unchanged for another week at around $550 per metric ton.

Iran: Land Routes Become More Active, but Maritime Exports Remain the Main Constraint

As expectations for a near-term reopening of the Hormuz Strait have weakened, rail and road shipments of Iranian bitumen to neighboring countries have increased. However, this has not been enough to unlock Iran’s main bitumen export channel or return the market to normal conditions.
The market is still waiting for a significant and sustainable change in the Hormuz Strait. During the past week, ex-refinery and FOB Bandar Abbas prices showed little movement and remained broadly at the previous week’s levels.

Insight from Razieh Gilani: A Price That Cannot Be Executed Is Not Yet a Real Offer

In a week like this, a price can change within hours. But the real issue is not whether a seller can always maintain the same price. Credibility is built when the seller remains available after quoting, explains changing conditions before the customer has to ask, and quickly adjusts the price when freight or other costs change.
Customers can usually accept a logical price adjustment. What damages trust is quoting a number and then having no one take responsibility for actually executing it.

For current bitumen prices, cargo availability, and reliable shipping guidance, Contact Us.