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Although Brent crude has corrected, the bitumen market is still constrained by vessel availability and shipping uncertainty in the Persian Gulf. Buyers remain focused on reliable cargo execution rather than lower prices, while developments around the Hormuz Strait continue to shape global market sentiment.
The energy market entered July with a mixed message: the war premium has partly moved out of oil prices, but shipping risk has not yet left the physical market. The latest focus is the dispute over the management of Hormuz Strait, where Iran continues to emphasize its role in controlling vessel passage, while possible routes through Oman and frameworks for normalizing traffic are also being discussed. Reuters reported that Tehran is still seeking to strengthen its position in managing transit through Hormuz Strait, while the U.S. side continues to stress free and safe passage for vessels.
In Doha, indirect technical talks between Iran and the U.S. are continuing with mediation from Qatar and Pakistan. This is not only a political matter. The main points are the sustainable return of maritime traffic, implementation of the 60-day ceasefire, the use of Hormuz Strait routes, and the issue of part of Iran’s frozen assets. Regarding the possible release of around USD 6 billion, reports are still not fully aligned. Iran has spoken about the release, while other sources describe it as conditional and gradual. For now, the market sees this as a possible improvement in liquidity and exports, not as a finalized event.
Brent oil moved in the approximate range of USD 72 to 74 during the past week and traded mostly around USD 72 to 73 on July 1. The decline shows that the market has removed a large part of the war risk from prices, but it is still waiting for the outcome of negotiations and a real normalization of vessel traffic. In market terms, oil has moved away from the political shock, but it has not yet reached operational stability.
For the bitumen market, lower Brent alone is not enough. When vessel availability, freight costs, loading schedules, and exit routes from the Persian Gulf remain uncertain, an FOB price cannot quickly turn into a reliable delivered price. Platts reported in its last June issue that Hormuz Strait traffic has improved, but transparency and the stability of vessel flows still matter to the market. This gap between oil prices and shipping reality is why the downward pressure from oil is reaching bitumen prices with a delay.
n Singapore, HSFO 180 CST was traded at around USD 427, while Singapore bitumen was assessed at around USD 565, slightly higher than the previous week. South Korea bitumen moved in the opposite direction and declined to around USD 485. In China, the market was also weaker, with East China around USD 560 to 580 and South China around USD 600 to 640, as project demand and import buying remained cautious.
In India, the monsoon season has already started. However, Indian refiners increased domestic bitumen prices effective July 1, 2026, with VG30 rising by around USD 9 per ton. This increase shows that the domestic Indian market is still resisting a fast price correction due to limited supply, high logistics costs, and demand from ongoing projects.
In Europe, the decline in oil and HSFO pushed export cargo prices lower, and the overall European export bitumen range, including the Mediterranean, Baltic, and Rotterdam, was assessed at around USD 435 to 459. In Bahrain, the price remained unchanged at USD 550. In Iran, drummed bitumen was traded at around USD 410 to 420 FOB Bandar Abbas, while shipping limitations and very high freight costs continued to restrict exports.
From Friday, July 3 to Tuesday, July 7, Iran will be on holiday due to the funeral ceremony of the former Iranian leader, which is also expected to affect loading operations and exports.
By the first week of July 2026, the main picture is clear: Brent oil has corrected faster than the physical market, but bitumen is still facing real restrictions in shipping and supply. If the Doha talks create a clearer path for Hormuz Strait and vessels return faster to normal operations, the downward pressure from oil and fuel oil may gradually move further into bitumen prices in the coming weeks. For now, buyers are not only looking for lower prices; they want cargoes that can actually be produced, loaded, and delivered.
In this kind of market, the right price is not just an attractive number on paper. The right price means the seller can turn that number into real cargo, real shipment, real delivery time, and real response. When the market changes every day with new headlines, the credibility and availability of the seller become part of the value of the deal, because in volatile times, trust is what reduces the buyer’s risk.
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