Weekly Bitumen Report: Negotiations in New York, Deadlock in the Hormuz Strait: Markets Caught Between Political Hope and Real Shipping Risk

This week, the energy market saw two very different pictures emerging from the Middle East. In New York, the UN General Assembly reopened a path for dialogue between Iran and the United States. Despite the strong tone of his speech, Donald Trump said the two sides were in talks and that he expected an agreement to eventually be reached.

A day later, Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran would not surrender under pressure, while reaffirming its belief in diplomacy as a way to end the war. The first indirect talks between the two sides in several months have now taken place, but as of September 24 there is still no sign of a practical agreement, and a senior Iranian official has said that significant differences remain.

At the same time, Xi Jinping arrived in the United States for his first visit to Washington in more than a decade. His September 24 meeting with Trump puts trade, technology, Taiwan and the Iran war on the same agenda. Ahead of the meeting, the United States and China arranged a short-term extension of their tariff truce, but the political outcome of the talks remains unclear.

The significance of this meeting for energy markets goes well beyond trade: China is one of the world’s largest oil consumers and an important partner of Iran, meaning that the direction of relations between Beijing, Washington and Tehran could influence the broader political calculations surrounding the crisis.

Negotiations in New York, but Ships Are Still Being Targeted in the Hormuz Strait

The gap between diplomacy and operational reality is even clearer in the Hormuz Strait. Shipping data showed that only two cargo vessels passed through the strait on Monday, compared with around 125 large commercial vessels per day before the war. Between Sunday and Monday, two tankers and a gas carrier were struck by unidentified projectiles, while another vessel was attacked near Oman on Wednesday.

At the same time, France, in coordination with the United States, is working on a UN Security Council proposal aimed at internationally protecting freedom of navigation through the Hormuz Strait. Diplomacy may have restarted, but the shipping industry is still operating under wartime conditions.

Brent Returns to the $104–105 Range

Brent crude reflected this contradiction throughout the week. Hopes surrounding the New York talks and the restart of Saudi Arabia’s East- West pipeline initially pushed Brent down from around $100 to nearly $97 per barrel. But once it became clear that Iran- US negotiations had not yet produced a tangible result and risks in the Hormuz Strait remained elevated, the market reversed.

Brent closed Wednesday at around $103 per barrel and returned to approximately $104- 105 on the morning of September 24. The market has therefore accepted neither a peace scenario nor a full return to escalation; for now, it is pricing in both possibilities.

East Asia Bitumen: Bitumen Holds Firm Despite Lower Fuel Oil

The September 23 Platts report showed a notable divergence. Singapore 180 CST HSFO fell to around $648 per metric ton, down about $14 on the day, while Singapore bitumen rose by $5 to around $725 per metric ton. South Korea bitumen also increased by $10 to approximately $720 per metric ton. This divergence suggests that the East Asian bitumen market is not simply following day-to-day fuel oil movements, with supply constraints also playing an important role in pricing.

In China, export bitumen from southern China was reported at around $790- 800 per metric ton FOB. Limited domestic supply has also encouraged some buyers to show greater interest in imported cargoes.

India: Refinery Prices Have Risen, but Imports Remain Cautious

India’s bitumen market remains uneven. Argus describes demand during the monsoon period as low to moderate and reports that many buyers continue to rely more heavily on domestic supply because of uncertainty surrounding loading schedules and the arrival of imported cargoes. Domestic prices moved higher following the mid-September increase, but the recovery in demand and seaborne trade has not yet kept pace with the rise in refinery prices.

Europe Calmer; Bahrain Steady

In Europe, export bitumen prices are broadly fluctuating between around $565 and $585 per metric ton. Bahrain bitumen remains at around $550 per metric ton FOB, although seaborne export activity continues to be limited.

Iran: 13% Increase in Bitumen Base Prices While Export Constraints Remain

In Iran, bitumen base prices increased by around 13% from September 23. Despite this rise, the price gap between Iranian bitumen and Asian markets remains substantial. However, war risk, higher freight costs and limited vessel availability mean that price advantage alone is still not enough to complete a transaction.

Insight from Razieh Gilani: The Quality of a Price Is Proven After the Quote Is Sent

In a market like this, a good price is not simply a number that looks competitive at the moment it is quoted. There must be product, a workable route, realistic timing and a responsive seller behind it. Conditions may change only a few hours later, but the customer needs to know who will explain those changes quickly, revise the price when necessary and find an alternative when the original route is no longer executable.

A seller’s credibility is built precisely in these moments- not when the market is calm, but when prices and conditions are changing continuously.