Weekly Bitumen Report: From the Tanker War to Attacks on Saudi Arabia: Brent Breaks Above $100

The Middle East energy crisis can no longer be explained simply as tension in the Hormuz Strait. The United States said it disabled five Iranian tankers after an attempted attack on a U.S. naval vessel, while Iran claimed it retaliated by targeting 10 vessels across the Persian Gulf and Hormuz Strait, the largest wave of reciprocal attacks on commercial shipping since the war began.

At the same time, the Houthis launched missile and drone attacks on several Saudi cities and energy facilities, injuring 73 people. Pakistan has also urged Tehran to use its influence to prevent further Houthi escalation. The energy market is therefore facing two simultaneous risks: shipping security across the Persian Gulf and Hormuz Strait, and the security of Saudi energy infrastructure and the Red Sea route.

Hormuz Strait Is Still Operating; But It Is No Longer Predictable

The issue is no longer simply how many vessels can cross the Hormuz Strait. The real problem is the lack of consistency in energy flows.

Analysis of shipping data suggests that, even with widespread “dark transits” in which vessels switch off their tracking systems, oil exports from Persian Gulf producers remain at only around two-thirds of pre-war levels. At the same time, additional insurance and war-risk costs for some tanker voyages through the Hormuz Strait have reportedly reached $10–20 million per voyage, while fewer shipowners are willing to enter the region.

A cargo may be able to cross today, but there is still no certainty that the next shipment can move at the same cost or within the same timeframe.

Brent Oil Price Returns Above $100

Brent crude was trading around $93 per barrel last Friday. As the tanker conflict intensified, attacks on Saudi Arabia increased and concerns over further supply losses grew, the Brent Oil Price moved back to around $101 per barrel on September 10.

This rise is different from some earlier geopolitical spikes. Part of the supply disruption is now physical, global inventories have declined, and OPEC+ decided on September 6 to keep its October production policy unchanged. For now, the market does not see a fast or reliable way to replace disrupted Middle East barrels.

For the Bitumen Market, Execution Risk Now Matters More Than Oil Price Alone

Higher Brent and fuel costs are only part of the story. When insurance, war-risk premiums, vessel availability, demurrage and shipping routes can change within days, the gap between a quoted Bitumen Price and an actually executable price becomes much wider.

This is also why Bitumen Markets are not reacting uniformly to higher crude. In some regions, tight supply is pushing prices higher; elsewhere, weak demand is still preventing the full increase in costs from being passed through to buyers.

East Asia: Fuel Oil Jumps and Bitumen Moves Higher, While China Follows a Different Path

International market reports put Singapore 180 CST HSFO at around $618 per metric ton, while Singapore Bitumen traded near $655 per metric ton. South Korea Bitumen also moved higher to approximately $585 per metric ton.

The more than $20 daily increase in fuel oil shows how quickly energy-cost pressure has returned to East Asia.

In China, export Bitumen Prices from southern ports are assessed at around $635–650 per metric ton FOB. Domestic prices in eastern and southern China have also increased, but higher costs are beginning to delay some purchasing decisions and non-essential infrastructure projects.

India: Monsoon Pressure Eases, but the Import Problem Remains

Argus has reported early signs of demand recovery as rainfall begins to ease, but India Bitumen imports remain constrained. Many shipowners are still reluctant to load cargoes from the Persian Gulf because of Middle East Shipping Risk, while war-related costs, vessel delays and demurrage have increased.

Indian state-owned refineries have also raised Bitumen Prices by around $13–14 per metric ton since the beginning of September. Even as consumption gradually improves, importers still face a wide gap between the origin price and the actual landed cost in India.

A further increase in India Bitumen Prices is also expected around mid-September if current cost and supply pressures continue.

Europe Remains Calmer Than Asia; Bahrain Holds at $550

Europe continues to show a more balanced picture than East Asia, with relatively sufficient supply and a slow recovery in demand following the summer holiday period.

FOB Bitumen Prices across European markets are currently around $530–560 per metric ton. In Bahrain, the official Bitumen Price remains unchanged at around $550 per metric ton for another week, although vessel shortages and shipping restrictions continue to limit maritime exports.

Iran: Lower Origin Prices Are Losing Their Advantage at Sea

Iran Bitumen continues to show a significant price gap compared with major Asian producers. However, maritime restrictions, security concerns, sanctions, insurance costs and cancelled orders have reduced the practical value of that price advantage.

As a result, land and rail exports to neighbouring countries are becoming increasingly important. Under current conditions, the origin price is only the starting point of the calculation, not the real transaction price.

Insight from Razieh Gilani: A Credible Seller Does More Than Quote a Price, They Manage Uncertainty

In a market like this, customers do not expect sellers to predict the future. They expect them to remain available when conditions change.

A reliable price is one supported by a clear route, available logistics capacity and a defined validity period. If those conditions change, a fast response and transparent explanation are more valuable than trying to artificially maintain yesterday’s price.

Trust is built precisely at these moments: when the customer knows that even if the market changes, the seller will remain available and communicate the reality before it becomes a problem.

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