Weekly Bitumen Report: The Uncertain Market Directions

As Russia's war against Ukraine gets one year old, around 1/4 of the Ukraine population seeks help. However, Russia announced a production cut of 500K barrels from 1 March in a one-sided decision. It is still unclear if this decision can lead to a surge in oil prices or whether this strategy might fail, like the plan of stopping gas export to Europe.

At the same time, many analysts are concerned about the "New Cold War" when the US shot down Chinese balloons in its airspace several times.

On Feb 9, China news asked the US to go for a brighter political policy. They believe that competition should not be in the business field. Whether it can affect the energy world or not, we should wait and see what happens.

The severe earthquake in Iran, Turkey, and Syria caused a lot of damage. The Turkish government is accused of being unresponsive and there might be consequences in politics and economics.

In the last week, Singapore's fuel didn't increase much. Fuel CST 180 stayed in the range of 410 dollars. Singapore bitumen also was $ 505 - $ 510 and the Korea price range was about $ 445. Bahrain bulk Bitumen is still around $ 325. India bitumen increased by 7.5 $ on Feb 15. This is the first price increase in India in 2023.

In Iran, despite all expectations for an increase in VB and hot competition among refineries, it is unlikely for the price to break this level.

The reason is the decrease of the Rial against the dollar. We can't neglect the increasing price of raw materials as well but the price might be in the same range for a while.

The bitumen export seems to have increased in February compared to January. Yet because of all the contradictions in market factors, bitumen traders should be more cautious about their purchases.

This article was prepared by Razieh Gilani, the export manager of Infinity Galaxy (www.infinitygalaxy.org).