Weekly Oil Report: Supply Disruptions Ignite Bullish Sentiments

Crude oil jumped up on Friday after about an %8 plunge during June. Brent closed at $111.38 and WTI settled at $108.48 after the bullish sentiments built by the disruptions of supply. Technically, the price is currently struggling with the yearly pivot at around $107 (the upper white line in the chart). If it succeeds in surpassing the area, it can become a strong support to the price. However, traders should be cautious about fake breakouts. If it cannot surpass the resistance at $107, the price can be volatile between the two white lines in the chart. The MACD condition shows a tendency for price growth at the moment. Considering the recent supply disruptions, the week can be important for the oil. Here are several supply disruptions:

• OPEC not complying with its agreement to increase the supply. The cartel failed to reach its supply increase in June as well.
• Exxon declared possibilities to shut down France’s Fos Refinery due to the strikes on Friday.
• Political tensions in Libya causing oil production outages
• The sustaining effects of the Ukraine-Russia war

In addition to the supply obstacles, demand seems to be steady despite assumptions about its destruction. The crude market seems to be under siege by the supply problems and steady demand. The bullish sentiment is growing back in the market as a result. If effective factors remain as the current, prices might see constant growth during the week. However, traders might observe any change in factors. Bitumen and petrochemicals were nearly steady for the week. Iran’s negotiations are still continuing in Qatar but the result is not clear yet. Market participants are still active and try to impose spot trading strategies.