Weekly Oil Report: Confusion Running Through Markets

The fall of crude oil, for the third consecutive month, slowed down bitumen growth but couldn’t stop it for September. Brent closed at $93.31 and WTI settled at $87.06 on Friday. [embed]https://youtu.be/W0CmT8jbSbU[/embed] Oil plunged by about 10% in August, closing below $100 for the third consecutive month. The current daily chart of WTI shows a strong drop in the price over three days. Meanwhile, Friday’s candle can be a sign of a slight comeback. The MACD is also in favour of the change. Yet, we might see whether it is temporary or not. Fundamentals are supporting the idea of a comeback during the week as well. Inflation is getting hotter in countries. Non-farm payrolls and unemployment rates were above the forecasts. According to risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft, the world is facing an unprecedented rise in civil unrest because of rising inflation and energy costs. There is a new possibility for a supply cut by OPEC. The cartel is meeting on Monday, Sep 5 and it might consider decreasing the supply as members believe in a surplus by the end of the year. The decision can evoke oil and petroleum product prices. Russia shut down Nord Stream 1 to Europe. The country also said that it would stop selling oil and oil products to every country that puts a price cap on Russian crude. Both OPEC rumours and Russia’s decision is causing upward pressure on the market. The mixed sentiment and confusion are running among traders, leaving many unable to set up a strategy. European and Mediterranean bitumen markets could not go along with oil prices. On the other hand, Asia is under strong price pressure and traders ask for lower rates. The game is even more complicated in Iran. On one hand, the bitumen price must decrease considering the price formula. On the other hand, the dollar exchange rate is not predictable since nuclear talks have been waiting. Iran's market is under pressure for decreasing its price. Tuesday, 6 September, new rates will be released. Currently, Iran's new steel drum is in the range of $410 - $420. Singapore bulk was $570 - $575, south Korea 60/80 was $515-525 and Bahrain stayed unchanged at $460 - $465 on Friday, 2 September.