Bitumen Market vs. Unexpected Oil Price

By the exceed of Brent Crude Oil up to $65/barrel, 2 scenarios were proposed:

1. a) This is not a real price and most probably it will drop again
2. b) The trend will be stable in a range of 65-67$.

In the first 2 days of the last week, oil price decreased up to 62$ then jumped up to 67.59$ (at the time of preparing this report). Based on technical analysis, there is no clear reason why such an increase is occurring.

Applying GRI in India shipment resulted in a shortage of containers among the shipping lines. Therefore, sellers are trying to load their cargoes before the GRI application. The exact time of performing this new rule is varying from 28 February to 15 March 2021.

Comparing to the last February and March in 2020, when the Coronavirus spread all over the world, there is less purchase demand in the current February and March. This can be due to the increase in oil price. The commodity market has not been adjusted with this increase yet, in fact, there is not enough certainty and assurance among both sellers and buyers. Accordingly, a significant downfall can be observed in the market.

Low-quality cargoes, mainly with the origin of Iraq, are still the dominant source of supply in the market. Buyers of these types of bitumen should anticipate the negative feedbacks and claims on the quality from their end buyers within the next few months when the road construction projects are fully done and the results are out.

By the end of the Lunar holiday 2021, the decisions of China about their economies should be also taken into consideration. They will make serious changes in the global market.

The nuclear negotiation among Iran, The European Union and the USA are not still clear. Whether the agreement takes place or not, its effects can be seen in the currency market as heavy fluctuations. Therefore, suppliers and traders should be seriously cautious about their offers to avoid irrecoverable losses. Based on reports of Argus Media and Platts, the soaring oil price will certainly cause an increase in product price rates. Moreover, the Iranian New Year holiday and irregular services of some of the shipping lines have made a complicated situation in the market. Generally, buyers and sellers should make new deals based on accurate planning.